All eyes will be on Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes with him looking to win a third consecutive Super Bowl and cement his status as one of the greatest big-game players in NFL history.
Here are my top NFL picks for the Patrick Mahomes odds with the Chiefs taking on the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 59 at Caesars Superdome on Sunday, February 9.
Patrick Mahomes player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 24.5 pass completions
(+100 at Caesars) - SGP pick
Chiefs moneyline
Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 passing completions
Patrick Mahomes Under 251.5 passing yards
(+1000 at Caesars)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Patrick Mahomes prop pick
My best bet
Over 24.5 pass completions (+100 at Caesars)
My analysis
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will need to attack with short and intermediate passes early and often to move the K.C. offense against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Philly finished the regular season ranked second in PFF run defense while allowing the second-lowest EPA per rush, and the Eagles also allowed the fourth-lowest yards per carry to opposing running backs. The Philadelphia pass defense also allowed the fewest yards per attempt, ranked first in PFF coverage defense, and surrendered the fewest passing completions of 20 yards or more.
Don’t be mistaken, Philly limiting both the Kansas City running game and long receptions are a positive for this wager, and Mahomes finished the regular season with a career-low 6.8 yards per attempt and career-high 67.5 completion percentage. More completions for shorter gains is exactly what we’re looking for from Mahomes in Super Bowl 59.
I also value that the three-time Super Bowl MVP odds winner has his full complement of weapons. For most of the season, wide receiver Marquise Brown and running back Isiah Pacheco were out of action, and the two-week pause will provide K.C. head coach Andy Reid oodles of time to ensure Mahomes is positioned for success.
Finally, it’s important to put the dominant Philadelphia defensive statistics in context. The Eagles played the third-easiest strength of schedule per PFF, and the Chiefs will be the best and most complete team in all three phases of the game they’ll face yet.
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Patrick Mahomes same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 pass completions
Chiefs moneyline
Patrick Mahomes Under 251.5 passing yards
I expect the Chiefs offense to be more dynamic with its full complement of skill-position players, and for the Eagles to see an uptick in class on both sides of the ball after facing a soft regular season schedule and good — but not elite — stretch through the NFC playoff bracket.
Add Kansas City having an edge in postseason experience and coaching to Mahomes being the better quarterback than Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, and I like the Chiefs pulling off the three-peat.
Moving to the third leg of this same-game parlay, the Under passing yards with Over completions provide a sneaky multiplier, and as discussed, I’m expecting the Eagles taking away big plays from Mahomes and the K.C. passing attack.
Additionally, I anticipate both teams looking to churn the clock. Philadelphia will lean on the ground game with running back Saquon Barkley, while Kansas City paced the NFL during the regular season in plays and time per drive.
Of course, in addition to the highlighted strength of the Eagles pass defense, Mahomes has also thrown for fewer than 250 yards in consecutive postseason games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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