Colts vs Patriots Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 10: Fade New England's Porous Offense

The NFL will send another pair of teams to Frankfurt, Germany on Sunday as the Indianapolis Colts “visit” the New England Patriots with the Colts sitting as a slight 1.5-point favorites according to Week 10 odds.

With the travel and the No. 31 scoring offense in football, should bettors continue to fade a New England offense that lacks pass-catchers and a competent quarterback?

I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Colts vs. Patriots on November 12. 

Want more great bets for this matchup? Check out our Colts vs. Patriots player prop picks and Mac Jones prop picks!

Colts vs Patriots odds

Colts vs Patriots predictions

The New England Patriots were supposed to roll over the Commanders last week and beat a defense missing its two best defensive linemen who were traded away mid-week.

Well, Mac Jones and the offense ultimately scored just 17 points for the second straight week and averaged 5.0 yards per pass, which was the second-shortest rate in Week 9. Jones capped the game off with a game-ending interception in the final minute. 

This is a New England receiving corps that was led by JuJu Smith-Schuster and Demario Douglas with Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker out. Bourne won’t play in Week 10 and Parker is still a question mark with a concussion. 

The Indianapolis Colts have been statistically better vs. the pass since Week 5, sitting seventh in success rate. The Colts held Bryce Young to 173 yards on 39 passes, which included three interceptions. There are some comparables between the Carolina and New England offenses and I'd think if this Indy defense can shut the Panthers and Young down, it can do the same with the Pats and Jones.  

I can’t back this New England offense as it has been so profitable to fade. The Patriots’ team total Under has cashed in seven of the last eight games, and only the Giants are scoring fewer points per game than the Pats.

The cross-world travel isn’t going to do this offense any favors. If the other four Europe games are any indication of scoring output, then fewer points are to be expected as the Under is a perfect 4-0 on the other continent this year. The German game last week finished 15 points shorter than the closing total. 

Getting this team total on the right side of 21 is very important, but I’d still play the Pats Under 20.5 at -110 or better. 

My best bet: Patriots team total Under 21.5 (-120 at Caesars)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Colts vs Patriots same-game parlay

Patriots TT Under 20.5

Jonathan Taylor anytime TD

Michael Pittman Over 62.5 receiving yards

+575 at bet365

This team total will likely close at 20.5 but still a number I like considering the setting and travel of the matchup.

Jonathan Taylor dominated snaps last week and finished with a 75% snap share to Zack Moss' 19% snap share. He also outcarried Moss 18-7.

Pittman could have a bigger role this week with Josh Downs banged up and doubtful with the bye coming up. Pittman has a 29% target share and that number could grow after an 8-target game with a positive game script in Week 9 where he caught all eight balls.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Colts vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis

The Pats and Colts will both be taking the red-eye on Thursday and arriving in Germany on Friday morning. That means both teams will be practicing in North America on Thursday before they fly cross-country. 

On the year, the Under is 4-0 in the Europe games and the product has been slightly less than the league average in terms of yards per play. 

Over those four games, the average yards per play has been 5.3, which is right around the league median. That might seem fine, but Baltimore, Kansas City, Miami, and Baltimore all rank in the Top 5 in yards per play on the season. I have been heavy on the Colts and their Overs of late, but I’m shying away this week on a total of 43.5, which was as high as 44 on the look-ahead. 

New England is missing key bodies at receiver and lacks a competent quarterback, and there is an argument that Gardner Minshew has been better than Jones as he owns a better passer rating on the season.

Since corner Christian Gonzalez hit the shelf, the Pats have been one of the worst secondaries in football. Sam Howell threw for 325 yards last week against the Pats and this unit ranks 26th in success rate vs. the pass since Week 5. 

The Colts might see the return of their starting corner, JuJu Brents, who has been absent for the last two games. Even with a knee injury potentially keeping Josh Downs out, the Colts still maintain solid slot depth with Isaiah McKenzie and continue to revolve their offense around the running game with Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss.

The Pats can’t pass and their run game ranks among the worst in football. It’s an offense that is lacking talent and with a possible sluggish cross-world game on deck, I’m not high on New England being competitive in this game unless they keep it low-scoring.

There is a certain chance of that, as we’ve seen even elite offenses stumble in Europe (Miami, Buffalo, and the Chiefs in the second half last week). However, this might be one of the worst offenses in football, and Indy just shut down a similar team last week in Carolina. 

I like the Under at 43.5 and lean on the Colts at -1.5. The travel does create some variance but I think that also favors a low-scoring affair. 

Colts vs Patriots betting trend to know

New England has only hit the first half moneyline in three of its last 20 games (-9.40 Units / -42% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Patriots.

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