The Indianapolis Colts are focusing on short-term success with the bold move to bench Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco — and that decision will be under the primetime microscope tonight against the Minnesota Vikings.
The glow from Minnesota’s 5-0 start has faded a little after back-to-back losses, and my Colts vs. Vikings predictions point to a tight matchup, with both defenses coming to the party.
Check out my NFL picks for this November 3 showdown, including tasty props for Aaron Jones and Jonathan Taylor.
Colts vs Vikings SNF predictions
- Colts +5.5 (-110 at bet365)
- Under 47 (-110 at bet365)
- Jones Over 21.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet36)
- Taylor first Colts touchdown scorer (+200 at bet365)
Colts vs Vikings SNF best bets
Colts +5.5
With the Indianapolis Colts sitting at 4-4 and on the bubble in the AFC playoff race, this is the right moment to give Joe Flacco the nod for a team that’s been competitive despite Richardson’s accuracy issues.
Indy is 2-1 this year with Flacco under center, and the veteran QB showed he can still be productive at this level last season while guiding the Browns into the postseason.
This is a tough matchup against Brian Flores’ blitz-happy Minnesota Vikings defense, but I’ll gladly take the points with the line at 5.5. Three of the Colts’ four losses have come by a margin of three points or fewer, and there’s garbage time potential even if the visitors fall behind.
Meanwhile, the Vikings’ offense still has some questions to answer as they try to stay in the ultra-competitive NFC North hunt.
Justin Jefferson is a matchup nightmare, but he accounted for almost half of Sam Darnold’s passing yards in Week 8 as other receivers struggled to make an impact. T.J. Hockenson’s return is timely, but it makes sense for the hosts to ease him back into the game plan.
This gritty Indy team has covered the spread in six straight games, and I like their chances of keeping this one close.
Under 47
As well as Flacco and Darnold have played at times this year, this quarterback clash is nudging me towards the Under.
Both teams will be content to shorten the game with their rushing attacks while relying on the kicking game when points are on offer, and I expect the Minnesota defense to bounce back after giving up 30 points to the Rams last time out.
Indy ran for 163 yards in Week 8 against the Texans, but the visitors could have a harder time sustaining drives against a Vikings team that’s allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game this season (83.9).
This feels like a stop-start contest with plenty of field goals, and that should translate to a slight Under.
Aaron Jones Over 21.5 receiving yards
Aaron Jones has caught the eye so far in his first season in Minnesota, and I’m predicting a busy night for Minnesota’s do-it-all running back.
It’s his pass-catching skills that could be a decisive factor tonight, and I love the Over on a line of 21.5 that feels at least five yards too low.
Jones has gone past this number in every game he’s played this year, and he’s had more than 35 receiving yards in three of his five outings.
With all the attention that Jefferson draws on the perimeter, there’s generally space for Darnold to operate in the middle of the field. That’s where Jones can thrive as a safety valve, and I expect him to see at least five targets tonight.
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Jonathan Taylor first Colts touchdown scorer
Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 100+ yards in three of his five contests this year, but the Minnesota front seven is a formidable wall to break down, so I prefer to take a touchdown prop for this SNF clash.
He’s scored five touchdowns already this year, and Indy’s shift from Richardson to the far less mobile Flacco should translate to even more red zone touches — and overall carries — for Taylor.
The Rams provided a blueprint for attacking the Vikings secondary, and I’m trusting Flacco to get the Colts into a couple of goal-line situations, opening the door for Taylor to score the visitors’ first touchdown.
Colts vs Vikings odds
Colts vs Vikings game info
| Location: | Stadium, City, State |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-3-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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