Dak Prescott Odds & TNF Props: Cowboys QB Racks Up the Completions

It’s an NFC East showdown on Thursday Night Football, with the Dallas Cowboys heading to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Giants. 

The two teams are tied in the division basement with 1-2 records, and our top NFL picks for Dak Prescott odds expect an efficient showing through the air from the veteran quarterback.

Dak Prescott TNF player prop picks

• Best bet
  Over 23.5 completions
  (-102 at FanDuel)
  
  
• SGP Pick
  Dak Prescott Over 7.5 rushing yards
  Dak Prescott 1+ passing touchdown
  Dak Prescott 250+ passing yards
  (+225 at FanDuel)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Dak Prescott TNF prop pick

My best bet
Over 23.5 completions (-102 at FanDuel)

My analysis

The Dallas Cowboys cannot run the football, and their defense can’t stop anyone, so I’m expecting Big D QB Dak Prescott to be taking it to the air early and often again Thursday against the New York Giants.

Dallas carries the fourth-lowest PFF rushing grade through three weeks, and the defense ranks 31st while also allowing the highest EPA per rush and fifth-highest overall. The combo has put Dallas behind the eight ball and in a pass-happy game script in consecutive games, and Prescott has completed 55 passes in the past two weeks.

Additionally, while Prescott’s 9.5 aDoT is way up over previous years, his yards per attempt is just 7.0. I’m anticipating him continuing to have success on short and intermediate throws, while the Giants focus on taking away the deep ball. Prescott’s 66.7 adjusted completion percentage is also way below last year’s 77.6% mark and his 74.4% in 2022.

New York shut down Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson in Week 3, but both the Washington Commanders and Minnesota Vikings put efficient passing numbers on the board in the first two games of the season. The Giants allowed the fifth-highest EPA per dropback and a healthy 79.2 completion percentage for 8.19 YPA through the first two weeks. 

I expect Dallas to have similar success through the air, and I also value the Cowboys backfield featuring four pass-catchers who’ve already combined for 19 receptions.

Finally, it’s encouraging to see this total taking early action to the Over, with the number climbing from an opening 43.5 to 45.5 at FanDuel.

Dak Prescott TNF same-game parlay

Dak Prescott Over 7.5 rushing yards

Dak Prescott 1+ passing touchdown

Dak Prescott 250+ passing yards

+225 at FanDuel

The majority of sportsbooks have a higher rushing yards total than the 7.5 benchmark FanDuel is hanging, and Prescott has eight or more rushing yards in 11 of his past 16 games dating back to last season. New York has also allowed 70 rushing yards over the past two weeks to Watson (26) and Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (44).

Prescott has tossed for at least one score in all three games this year and 18 of his past 21 dating back to the beginning of the 2023 season, too. He’s also averaged 336 passing yards the past two weeks and 283.7 for the campaign after recording 265.6 per in 2023. Additionally, the Dallas QB has 250 or more passing yards in nine of his past 11 games.

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