It’s an NFC South showdown at the Caesars Superdome, and the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints couldn’t be heading in more opposite directions entering Week 10.
My Falcons vs. Saints predictions anticipate Atlanta covering the number as a road favorite in this divisional showdown.
Find out why in my NFL picks for Sunday, November 10.
Falcons vs Saints prediction
My best bet
Falcons -3.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The New Orleans Saints have been run over the past six weeks while allowing the highest EPA per rush and rushing success rate to opponents, and they’ve also allowed the third-highest yards per carry for the year.
New Orleans has also dropped to 23rd in defensive DVOA and 30th in PFF defense grade following a 23-22 loss to the Carolina Panthers.
Of course, the Saints have also dropped seven consecutive games, fired head coach Dennis Allen on Monday, and traded star cornerback Marshon Lattimore on Tuesday.
The New Orleans offense is also going to be without No. 1 wide receiver Chris Olave (concussion) for the foreseeable future, and fellow wideouts Rashid Shaheed (knee) and Bub Means (ankle) are also on injured reserve.
Not good, Bob.
So, with the Atlanta Falcons ranking fifth in offensive DVOA and sporting the third-highest PFF offense grade, I’m confident QB Kirk Cousins & Co. can have another successful afternoon Sunday. They enter with an average of 28.7 points per game across the past six weeks and have scored 26 or more in five times.
Additionally, Atlanta is sixth in EPA per play, EPA per dropback, and EPA per rush, so this is anything but a one-dimensional offense. Playing in the Caesars Superdome is also a perfect setup for both Cousins and the rushing attack.
He’s 32-23 in a dome with a 69.3% completion rate and 7.9 yards per attempt during his career, after all.
Falcons vs Saints same-game parlay
Falcons -3.5
Falcons Over 24.5
Juwan Johnson Over 28.5 receiving yards
The first two legs of this same-game parlay are correlated, and I’m surprised the Atlanta team total is so low given the highlighted statistical mismatch between the Saints and Falcons.
Turning to New Orleans tight end Juwan Johnson, the noted injuries to the Saints receiving corps position him to continue seeing consistent looks in the passing attack.
He’s cleared this receiving yards total in four of the past five weeks with 16 receptions for 186 yards on 20 targets, which checks out at an average of 37.2 yards per game.
Additionally, the Falcons haven’t been overly stingy against tight ends. Atlanta has allowed a healthy 7.56 yards per target and a 75.8 catch percentage to the position, and an opposing tight end has recorded 44 or more receiving yards against the Falcons in each of the past four weeks.
Read my full Falcons vs. Saints same-game parlay for even more in-depth analysis.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Falcons vs Saints odds
Falcons vs Saints live odds
Falcons vs Saints opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta -3.5 (-110) | New Orleans +3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -190 | New Orleans +155
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Falcons vs Saints spread and Over/Under analysis
- While there hasn’t been significant movement to this spread, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Falcons trading at -4 by Sunday.
- BetMGM opened Atlanta -3.5 and briefly tested a -3 spread before returning to the original offering.
- This total has dropped considerably from the opening 48.5 at BetMGM to 46.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- The movement aligns with the injury-riddled New Orleans offense, but it’s worth noting the two teams combined for 50 points during Atlanta’s 26-24 win in Week 4.
Falcons vs Saints betting trend to know
Atlanta has covered the spread in four of its past five games. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Saints.
Falcons vs Saints game info
| Location: | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-10, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Falcons vs Saints latest injuries
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