NFL First Touchdown Scorer Props for Week 18: White Rumbles Against Carolina

With Tampa Bay looking to get back in the playoffs, the Bucs' fortunes will turn to Rachaad White as they face off against a weak Panthers rush defense. Read more as White headlines Sam Farley's first touchdown scorer props for Week 18.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Jan 6, 2024 • 07:09 ET • 4 min read
Rachaad White Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL
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It’s the final week of the NFL season, which means we have one final big slate to identify the most likely first touchdown scorers and get some big price wins when it comes to Week 18 odds

We’re studying the First Touchdown Scorer markets to find three players who offer the perfect mix of value and opportunity to deliver some healthy returns. Let's dissect the latest NFL odds and get right into it with our NFL picks

Week 18 first touchdown scorer props

Picks made on January 6 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Best Week 18 first TD scorer props

Prop bet #1: White Noise

When selecting a first touchdown scorer, several factors come into play. It's crucial to consider which teams are strong favorites, assess the weaknesses in opposing defenses, and account for any increases in snap counts for players that may not be reflected in the betting odds. The task becomes even more challenging towards the end of the season when some games and teams are dead rubbers with nothing at stake.

In this context, I'm choosing Rachaad White to score first, primarily based on the first two considerations. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 4.5-point favorites on the road, aiming to secure the NFC South title with a victory. They understand that a key pathway to success lies in dominating on the ground, and it just so happens that the Carolina Panthers have conceded 21 rushing touchdowns to running backs this season.

White enters Week 18 with four scores in his past five games. With the Bucs' playoff hopes on the line against a team struggling to defend the run, the equation seems favorable.

Rachaad White prop: Pick (+330 at 888sport)

Prop bet #2: Travy Time

Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Jacksonville Jaguars, Doug Pederson will lean on Travis Etienne to get the job done against the Tennessee Titans in Sunday's AFC South showdown. 

The Titans rank in the middle of the pack in terms of defending the run, but as witnessed last week, Etienne became the focal point of the Jags' offense, recording 16 carries for 102 yards and two touchdowns. With a season total of 12 TDs, the Jags RB is the most likely candidate to score first. 

Travis Etienne prop: Pick (+350 at 888sport)

Prop bet #3: Hoops and Ladders

We have enticing +2,200 odds on Austin Hooper to score first, a prospect I find appealing for the Las Vegas Raiders tight end. The bookmakers project this game to be very close, with the Denver Broncos holding a one-point favorite status, indicating an almost equal chance of either team scoring first.

The Broncos have conceded 10 touchdowns to tight ends this season across 16 games, the highest in the NFL. With Michael Mayer sidelined due to injury, we've witnessed an uptick in Hooper's involvement. In the past two weeks without Mayer, he has accumulated a total of six targets, establishing himself as the team's lead tight end.

At 22/1 to score first, this presents a substantial value, especially considering the Broncos' struggles against tight ends this season. 

Austin Hooper prop: Pick (+2,000 at 888sport)

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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