The Detroit Lions are the hottest team in the NFL, but can their star signal caller stuff the stat sheet like Americans stuff their plate on Thanksgiving?
After taking a look through Jared Goff's odds, I think the best way to bet on the Lions’ QB is to take the Under on his pass attempts in what will be a dominant game in the trenches for Detroit.
Jared Goff player prop picks
- Best bet
Under 30.5 pass attempts
(-128 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Goff Over 1.5 passing TDs
Williams Over 47.5 receiving yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime TD
(+361 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jared Goff prop pick
My best bet
Under 30.5 passing attempts (-128 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It’s been another good season for Jared Goff, who has 20 touchdown passes and a QB Rating of 109.9 through the first 12 weeks of the season.
He’s fresh off a game against the Colts in which he had 36 passing attempts, but before that, his last game with Over 30.5 passing attempts was Week 2 when he had an insane 55.
In fact he’s surpassed 30.5 passing attempts just twice all season, and the Week 2 game against the Bucs heavily skews his average of 27.8 per game. Remove that, and he’s been averaging just 25.1 — a long way below the required rate here.
This is a good Chicago defense against the pass; however, the Bears are in the bottom half against the run, an area in which we know the Lions shine.
Even with David Montgomery questionable coming into this game, the Lions have such a dominant ground game they won’t need to pass much — especially given they’re 9.5-point favorites.
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Jared Goff same-game parlay
Jared Goff Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Jameson Williams Over 47.5 receiving yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime touchdown
My best bet isn’t eligible for being part of the SGP, but Over 1.5 passing touchdowns is a great pivot. He’s running just below that currently with 20 in 11 games but has thrown two or more in seven of his past nine games.
The Bears have a good defense, but this is a total Jameson Williams has exceeded in seven of his nine games this season, including the past three games since he returned from his ban.
Last week’s game against the Colts was the first time Amon-Ra St. Brown hadn’t found the end zone since Week 2. He’s the main man for the Lions and still gets elite levels of targets. He'll find paydirt against Chicago.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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