It's the Aaron Rodgers debut — take two.
The New York Jets QB is hoping for a better result than last year in his return to action against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football in Week 1.
And while Rodgers' presence will certainly steal the spotlight, my Jets vs. 49ers prediction focuses on his opponent, Brock Purdy. Find out why Purdy will be on the run tonight in my best NFL picks for September 9.
Editor's note: This article was written and published prior to the news of Christian McCaffrey being listed as inactive (calf).
49ers RB Christian McCaffrey is inactive tonight. His calf injury still is not fully right. pic.twitter.com/MOaENCVuA4
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 9, 2024
Jets vs 49ers MNF prediction
My best bet
Brock Purdy Over 6.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Aaron Rodgers or no Aaron Rodgers, the New York Jets have one of the fiercest defenses in all the land. With the future Hall of Fame quarterback missing all of 2023, New York’s stop unit kept the team competitive and enters 2024 ranked No. 1 by many analysts.
The Jets have a tremendous pass rush, finishing last season among the leaders in pressure rate and sacks (48) despite blitzing at the second-lowest rate. That speaks volumes to the quality of the pass coverage, which leaves rival QBs with few options down field and hearing footsteps as the clock ticks.
Brock Purdy, who was fourth in average time in pockets in 2023 (2.6 seconds), will feel the heat on Monday night and will have to make plays with his legs to avoid sacks — especially if offensive lineman Trent Williams misses snaps in pass protection as he gets back into form.
“Mr. Irrelevant” isn’t known for his wheels but when the San Francisco 49ers have played defenses with a taste for QB, Purdy has had to tuck and run.
Last season, his biggest rushing efforts came against top-tier pass rushes like Pittsburgh (17 yards), Minnesota (17 yards), Cincinnati (16 yards), Tampa Bay (13 yards), and Detroit (48 yards in NFC Championship). He also had 12 yards on the ground versus Kansas City in the Super Bowl, which just topped his rushing total of 11.5 O/U.
What’s more, Purdy is apt to run against defenses that play more man-to-man coverage, which is what we saw in the 49ers’ postseason run.
While he dissects zone coverage with Kyle Shanahan’s schemes, his completion percentage drops versus man but the opportunity to run is greater as defenders turn their backs to the QB. New York’s sensational secondary ran the eighth-highest rate of man-to-man coverage in the NFL last season.
Purdy’s Week 1 rushing total is as low as 6.5 yards against New York’s defense. This prop market actually opened as low as 5.5 O/U and is as high as 7.5 at many books as of Sunday morning. Player projections for Purdy range from eight yards to as many as 16, with my number just shy of 10 rushing yards from the 49ers quarterback.
Jets vs 49ers MNF same-game parlay
Brock Purdy Over 6.5 rushing yards
George Kittle anytime TD
Deebo Samuel Over 48.5 receiving yards
Purdy will get his butt in gear against potent pass rushes and make some plays with his legs to edge the Jets.
George Kittle is one of the best tight ends against man-to-man coverage, which he’ll see a lot of on Monday. New York allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends last season — tied for second-most in the NFL.
With Brandon Aiyuk playing catch-up after his "hold-in," Deebo Samuel will be a clear WR1. Projections range from 49 receiving yards to as many as 60, with all forecasts north of this total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Jets vs 49ers odds
Jets vs 49ers live odds
Jets vs 49ers opening odds
- Spread: New York +6 (-110) | San Francisco -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: New York +210 | San Francisco -260
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Jets vs 49ers spread and Over/Under analysis
• This Week 1 line has been up since the schedule released in the spring. Bookies opened San Francisco as big as a 6-point favorite but early play on the Jets knocked that down to -5 over the summer. As of today at FanDuel, 58% of tickets and 54% of handle are on the Niners.
• That spread dipped as low as Niners -3.5 with Aiyuk and Williams holding out for contracts during training camp. However, the team locked up those key contributors in time for the season opener, as we’ve seen the buyback on San Francisco take this spread back up to -4.5.
• The Over/Under hit the board at 45.5 points in the spring and slowly shrunk over the summer to as low as 42.5 O/U. Once the Niners settled those contract issues, the total ticked up to 43.5 O/U. Over at FanDuel, 55% of tickets and 63% of handle is on the Niners.
• According to Covers Consensus, 59% of spread picks are on San Francisco, while the Over is drawing 54% of support.
• As of Monday afternoon, the three most popular anytime touchdown scorers by bets and handle at FanDuel are Christian McCaffrey (-175), Breece Hall (+120), and Deebo Samuel (+165).
Jets vs 49ers betting trend to know
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan hasn’t been great as a home fave during his time with the team. Since 2017, he’s 16-21-1 ATS when laying points as a host, including a 3-5 ATS record in 2023. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. 49ers.
Jets vs 49ers game info
| Location: | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |
| Date: | Monday, 9-9-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN, ABC |
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