As the Los Angeles Chargers attempt to lock up a spot in the playoffs, they take on the lowly New England Patriots on the road on Saturday.
Despite the expected frigid temperatures, Chargers QB Justin Herbert is poised to stay hot against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.
With New England’s issues in its secondary and the emergence of a true go-to receiver for Los Angeles, there’s value to be found in the Justin Herbert odds for Saturday, December 28.
We break down Justin Herbert's props and NFL picks in our Chargers vs. Patriots predictions below.
Justin Herbert player prop picks
- Best bet
Justin Herbert Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
(-115 at BetMGM) - SGP Pick
Herbert Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Herbert Over 20.5 completions
Ladd McConkey Over 5.5 receptions
(+300 at BetMGM)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Justin Herbert prop pick
My best bet
Justin Herbert Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Gone are the days of the New England Patriots playing mind games with opposing quarterbacks. Bill Belichick is in Chapel Hill, Devin McCourty is on TV, and Dont’a Hightower is next to Jerod Mayo, coaching linebackers on the sideline in New England.
Clearly, the Patriots are in the middle of a slow rebuild in hopes that Drake Maye can develop into a passer as impressive as Justin Herbert. Well, he’ll have a front-row seat to the subtle yet awe-inspiring play of the former Offensive Rookie of the Year on Saturday.
With Jim Harbaugh leading the Los Angeles Chargers, Herbert is having his best season since making the Pro Bowl in 2021. While he’s still a tier below the Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen level, he’s been one of the most efficient passers in the league.
The former first-round pick out of Oregon is the only quarterback in the NFL with more than 12 touchdown passes and fewer than five interceptions - he’s tossed 18 tuddies and just three interceptions this season.
He should add to that total on Saturday afternoon with his third straight game of two-plus touchdown passes.
After a start to the season that saw him throw fewer than 30 passes in four straight games, Harbaugh and Greg Roman have let their young passer loose, and it’s paid off. He’s thrown 30-plus passes in eight of his last 11 games and has had Over 1.5 touchdown passes in five of his last nine.
New England presents arguably his easiest opponent in weeks after playing the Denver Broncos, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, and Baltimore Ravens - four of which rank top 14 in EPA per play on defense.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are just 30th in EPA per play and 31st in EPA per dropback on defense. This is a unit that’s allowed 23 passing touchdowns this season and the eighth-highest passer rating in the NFL (97.2).
While Josh Allen and Kyler Murray failed to throw two TD passes against this defense in the last two weeks, Anthony Richardson accomplished the feat recently - meaning 25% of his TD passes this season have come against New England.
The Patriots also allowed back-to-back four TD pass games to Matthew Stafford and Tua Tagovailoa in Week 11 and 12. Get ready for Herbert to ruin the holiday season for the New England faithful.
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Justin Herbert same-game parlay
Justin Herbert Over 1.5 touchdown passes
Justin Herbert Over 20.5 completions
Ladd McConkey Over 5.5 receptions
Between Herbert’s efficiency, the hot streak he’s on, and the play of New England’s defense, the 26-year-old should finish with 21-plus completions.
He’s hit the mark in three straight games, and four of his last five outings, which has coincided with the return of Ladd McConkey from injury. The rookie out of Georgia has become the obvious top receiver for the Chargers and has taken his game up a notch in recent weeks.
In McConkey’s last five games, he’s hit six-plus receptions four times while averaging 93.6 receiving yards per game on 6.4 receptions. Herbert is looking his way early and often, with the second-round pick seeing eight targets per game over that stretch.
After putting up zero games of Over 5.5 receptions in his first six outings of the season, McConkey has now caught at least six passes in five of his last eight games.
He’s a budding star, ranking third in receptions among rookies (69), second in yards per route run (2.32), fourth in contested catches (12), and first in QB rating when targeted (120.4).
Herbert knows this is his best weapon, and we should expect to see him featured against the Patriots.
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