As the Detroit Lions try to secure the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the conference, they have a must-win matchup against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.
With Detroit trying to persevere through a slew of injuries, Dan Campbell’s team is set to rely on two of its young superstars against a San Francisco squad that hasn’t lived up to expectations.
My Lions vs. 49ers player props and NFL picks for Monday, December 30 expect Ben Johnson’s two most reliable playmakers to shine.
Lions vs 49ers MNF props
Gibbs Over 94.5 rush yds (-113 at FanDuel)- St. Brown anytime TD (-110 at FanDuel)
Purdy Under 1.5 passing TDs (-114 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Lions vs 49ers MNF props
Prop bet #1: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 94.5 rushing yards
When Detroit Lions GM Brad Holmes selected Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, many pundits were scratching their heads. The team had just signed David Montgomery and using a first-round pick on a devalued position is considered malpractice in today’s NFL.
But it didn’t take long for Gibbs to prove his doubters wrong. And now, Montgomery is out, and the Lions are leaning into what “Sonic” brings to the table. The Alabama product has been one of the most dynamic players in the NFL and looked completely comfortable as Detroit’s bell cow last week.
Gibbs had a season-high 23 carries and popped off for his third 100-plus-yard rushing performance of the season against the Bears in Week 16. It will be much of the same on Monday Night Football vs. the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers defense has struggled all year and is among the worst in the league against the run. Nick Sorensen’s unit is giving up 121 rushing yards per game and ranks just 28th in EPA per rush.
With 129 missed tackles this season, per PFF, San Francisco will have a ton of trouble trying to bring down the slippery Gibbs. Not only is he averaging 3.34 yards per carry after contact, but he’s eighth in the NFL in forced missed tackles (53) and third in 10-plus yard runs (34).
Between Gibbs’ expected workload with Montgomery out and the 49ers run defense being lackluster, he should hit 95-plus rushing yards for the second straight week
Prop bet #2: Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime touchdown
For the third straight season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has over 100 receptions for over 1,100 yards. He’s among the best in the NFL at making money plays — picking up first downs and scoring touchdowns — and he should continue to make major splashes against the 49ers.
Already with a career-high 11 touchdowns, St. Brown is poised to find the end zone in prime time. The former fourth-round pick out of USC has scored in two straight games and previously had an eight-game scoring streak earlier in the season.
While the 49ers are more susceptible on the ground than through the air, Johnson’s playcalling tends to set St. Brown up to pay off on scoring drives. And it only helps that Jared Goff is putting together the best season of his career.
The Lions’ franchise QB is running Johnson’s system to perfection and sits sixth in the league in adjusted completion rate (78.6%) and isn’t afraid to force-feed his top receiver. St. Brown has had seven-plus targets in 10 games this season, and that includes averaging 13 over his last two.
That volume has helped him put six points on the board in each of his last two games and there’s no reason Goff won’t continue to look his way. St. Brown is top 15 in the league in yards per route run (2.31), contested catches (18), and QB rating when targeted (131.8).
This depleted San Francisco team doesn’t have a cornerback capable of stopping St. Brown.
Prop bet #3: Brock Purdy Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
It almost doesn’t seem to matter how many injuries the Lions’ defense racks up, Aaron Glenn’s side of the ball just continues to weather the storm and get its job done. That’s why Brock Purdy could be in for a rude awakening at home in prime time.
Detroit is fourth in the NFL in EPA per dropback on defense and has given up the second-fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL (15). So is Purdy really going to get back on track against the Lions?
Aside from one strong performance against the lowly Chicago Bears, Purdy hasn’t been very good as of late. In two of his last four games, he’s thrown for zero touchdowns, and he’s only gone Over 1.5 passing touchdowns five times in 14 games this season.
Purdy has been sporadic at best this year, as San Francisco’s offense has relied more heavily on him with Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk’s injuries. He’s just 21st in the NFL in big-time throws (14) and has more turnover-worthy plays (15).
His accuracy hasn’t been as on point either, he’s 29th in adjusted completion rate this season (73.2%) and part of the reason is he’s trying to do too much — he’s pushing the ball down the field more often with a career-high 9.0 ADOT.
There are too many factors working against the 49ers’ young QB to hit the Over on this prop.
Best Lions vs 49ers bonus
Get $250 in bonus bets when you win with FanDuel!
New users can create an account at FanDuel and place your first bet of $5+ on the NFL, and get $250 in bonus bets if your first bet wins!
Sign up now at FanDuel Sportsbook, or learn more with our comprehensive FanDuel review.
More Monday Night Football picks from Covers
- Lions vs. 49ers predictions
- Jared Goff odds and props
- Lions vs. 49ers anytime TD picks
- Best Lions vs. 49ers boosts
- Free NFL picks and predictions
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
See FanDuel T&Cs
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).
