Two of the best teams in the NFL face off on Sunday as the Minnesota Vikings host the Detroit Lions. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, with the game being broadcast on FOX.
Minnesota has gone a perfect 5-0 to start the year, and a brutal injury for Detroit has me backing the home side in my Lions vs. Vikings predictions for Week 7.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this NFC North battle on Sunday, October 20.
Lions vs Vikings prediction
My best bet
Vikings -1.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The lookahead line for this game had the Minnesota Vikings installed as 1.5-point home favorites. The spread briefly moved to -2.5 but is back to the original number despite the Detroit Lions losing superstar defender Aidan Hutchinson to a season-ending injury last week. I don't think that has properly adjusted for the importance of Hutchinson to this Lions defense.
One thing their defense did well was generate pressure, but an incredible 45 of their 73 total pressures came from Hutchinson, who had been the favorite in the Defensive Player of the Year odds. Without Hutchinson bringing the heat, Detroit's vulnerable cornerbacks will be exposed by Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
On other side of the ball, the Lions' offense has been firing on all cylinders, but this will be their toughest test of the year. Keep in mind that they have yet to face a team in the Top 15 of the league in defensive EPA, and three of their five previous opponents sit in the Bottom 6.
The Vikings lead the league in defensive EPA and have shown the ability to disrupt prolific attacks, limiting the 49ers to 17 points in Week 2 and holding the Texans to just seven points in Week 3.
With the Vikings fresh off a bye and playing at home for the first time in almost a month, back them against a Lions team due for offensive regression.
Lions vs Vikings same-game parlay
Vikings -1.5
Jared Goff Over 245.5 passing yards
Justin Jefferson Over 91.5 receiving yards
While the Vikings should slow down Detroit's explosive offense, I doubt they'll shut them down completely.
Minnesota leads the NFL in pressure rate (32.6%) but Detroit is excellent in pass protection and was able to move the ball against this blitz-happy Brian Flores defense last year. Jared Goff completed 73.6% of his passes for 577 yards in two games against the Vikes last season and has thrown for 290+ yards in three of his last four games this year.
Jefferson had six catches for 92 yards last week and that was despite often being shadowed by Jets shutdown CB Sauce Gardner. He'll have a much easier time against Detroit corners Carlton Davis III and Terrion Arnold, who have both struggled this year.
The Lions play man at the sixth-highest rate in the league and Jefferson has an incredible 40.5% target rate against man coverage. The superstar wide-out has dominated the Lions in recent years, putting up 192, 141, and 223 yards against them over the last three meetings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Lions vs Vikings odds
Lions vs Vikings live odds
Lions vs Vikings opening odds
- Spread: Detroit +1.5 | Minnesota -1.5
- Moneyline: Detroit +105 | Minnesota -125
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Lions vs Vikings spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Vikings are 5-0 straight up and against the spread while the Lions are 4-1 SU and ATS.
- At 50.5, this is the third-highest total this week despite the Vikes going 4-1 to the Under and Detroit being 2-3 O/U.
- Minnesota QB Sam Darnold is seventh in the NFL in pass efficiency (103.4), although he ranks a modest 15th in passing grade (65.8) per PFF.
- The last five meetings between these rivals have seen at least 50 points scored with the Lions covering in all of those contests.
Lions vs Vikings betting trend to know
Undefeated teams on 13+ days of rest are 27-15 ATS since 2003. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Vikings.
Lions vs Vikings game info
| Location: | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-20-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Lions vs Vikings latest injuries
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