We are now into the business end of the NFL season as Thanksgiving is upon us, which means we get three Thursday games to watch and wager on.
All three home teams are laying points, but I believe the opportunity to go against the grain is the best way to turn a profit.
Find out who I'm backing in my Week 13 NFL picks against the spread!
Week 13 picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Bears vs  Lions |
(+10) |
 Giants vs  Cowboys |
(-4) |
 Dolphins vs  Packers |
(+3) |
 Raiders vs  Chiefs |
(-12.5) |
 Texans vs  Jaguars |
(+5) |
 Chargers vs  Falcons |
(+1.5) |
 Cardinals vs  Vikings |
(-3.5) |
 Titans vs  Commanders |
(-5.5) |
 Colts vs  Patriots |
(-3) |
 Steelers vs  Bengals |
(-2.5) |
 Seahawks vs  Jets |
(-2.5) |
 Rams vs  Saints |
(-3) |
 Buccaneers vs  Panthers |
(-6) |
 Eagles vs  Ravens |
(+3) |
 49ers vs  Bills |
(-7) |
 Browns vs  Broncos |
(+5.5) |
Lines courtesy of bet365 as of 11-26
Expert Week 13 ATS picks
Bears vs Lions
Bears +10
There's no denying the Detroit Lions as perhaps the best team in the NFL, but they are going to have a dud sooner or later. They've played at an extremely high level but this will be the first time playing on a short week. Give me the points with the Chicago Bears, who may treat this like their Super Bowl.
Giants vs Cowboys
Cowboys -4
Repeat after me: I will not bet on Tommy DeVito. I will not bet on Tommy DeVito. I will not bet on Tommy DeVito.
Dolphins vs Packers
Dolphins -3
The Green Bay Packers are playing well, but the Miami Dolphins are a different team with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa under center and the results are speaking for themselves. The Fins will continue their ascension up the AFC standings and move closer to a wild-card spot.
Raiders vs Chiefs
Chiefs -12.5
Only two of the Kansas City Chiefs' 10 wins have been by double digits, so I understand if you're hesitant to lay this many points with them. However, with Desmond Ridder under center for the Las Vegas Raiders, I don't see the Chiefs defense giving up more than 14 points.
Texans vs Jaguars
Jaguars +5
The Houston Texans are struggling and I'm willing to give the Jacksonville Jaguars one more chance at home, coming off a bye week.
Chargers vs Falcons
Falcons +1.5
The Atlanta Falcons enter this game off a bye, which means they should be prepared for the Los Angeles Chargers run game. Throw in the fact that LA is going West to East for an early start on a shorter week, and I'll take the hosts to pull off the mini-upset.
Cardinals vs Vikings
Vikings -3.5
The Arizona Cardinals have been playing well but the way they were run off the field vs. the Seahawks makes me hesitate to back them. The Minnesota Vikings have plenty of playmakers who can burn this suspect Cardinals defense and, at home, they should be able to cover this spread.
Titans vs Commanders
Commanders -5.5
Two things that happened last week, won't happen again this week. The Tennessee Titans put up a season-high in points, and the Washington Commanders overlooked an opponent. All things considered, the Commanders are the better team and will cover this spread at home.
Colts vs Patriots
Colts -3
This may be one of the worst games on the card but I'll take the team that's still within touching distance of the division lead. Give me the Indianapolis Colts and a big day from Jonathan Taylor.
Steelers vs Bengals
Bengals -2.5
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Are you not entertained though?
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Seahawks vs Jets
Seahawks -2.5
Aaron Rodgers doesn't know if he's going to play in 2025, yet the majority of New York Jets fans wish he would call it quits now so they can go into full-blown tank mode. I'll take the team with more to play for.
Rams vs Saints
Rams -3
Sure the New Orleans Saints have won two straight and put up 35 against the Browns, but I'm not convinced they're a good team. The Los Angeles Rams have plenty of weapons on offense that can threaten and they won't be as bad defensively here as they were on Sunday night vs. Philly.
Buccaneers vs Panthers
Buccaneers -6
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl odds moved from +13,000 to +5,500 despite a 5-6 record. A soft remaining schedule starts with the Carolina Panthers, a team that will be emotionally drained after taking the Chiefs to the wire and still losing.
Eagles vs Ravens
Eagles +3
I'm not stepping in front of this Philadelphia Eagles train right now and neither should you.
49ers vs Bills
Bills -7
The Buffalo Bills are rested off their bye and need to continue to rack up the wins as they chase Kansas City for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The San Francisco 49ers are spiraling out of control and another blowout loss on the road would all but kill them off.
Browns vs Broncos
Browns +5.5
Are the Denver Broncos good or have they just played bad teams? Is Jameis Winston good enough to win one on the road in altitude? Tune in on Monday night to find out.
Not intended for use in MA.
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