Family, food, and football. Thanksgiving might be the perfect holiday.
At no other point in the year is it acceptable — almost celebrated — to sit on your ass for five straight days, stuff your face, and bet on your NFL picks and predictions.
This luxury can come at a cost, however.
Some folks must navigate the bat-shit crazy airports or drive hours of relentless highway to find themselves in this seasonal Shangri-La.
Once there, you may be forced to fit in your childhood bed, sleep on a cruel, cat-soaked pull-out sofa, or give yourself an aneurysm blowing up a leaky air mattress.
At some point this week you’ll absorb the same old family stories for the 55th time, chew back questionable cooking (stop putting raisins in everything Aunt Mary!), or be the lead blocker for your cousin as he battles the crowds at 6 a.m. on Black Friday.
But the moment that first game kicks off on Thanksgiving, everything will be right with the world.
You’ll quickly realize those “inconveniences” are a small price to pay to be with the ones you love, eat the food you like, and share your passion for football… which often means trash-talking the Dallas Cowboys.
Here are my favorite NFL underdog picks and predictions for Week 13. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving to all who celebrate.
Season: 17-16 ATS
NFL Week 13 predictions and picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Arizona Cardinals (+4) at Minnesota Vikings
My pick: Arizona Cardinals +4
Best odds: -114 at BetRivers
We’ve all had a bad day at the office. That was Week 12 for the Arizona Cardinals.
Arizona took a four-game winning streak into a Week 11 bye and came out the other side flat, losing 16-6 to the rival Seahawks on the road this past Sunday.
The Cardinals outgained Seattle but went 0/2 in the red zone, 3/12 on third downs, and a 69-yard interception return for a touchdown knocked the wind out of Arizona in the second half.
Offensively, the Cardinals were out of sorts. Defensively, though, Arizona continued to clamp down.
Going back to Week 7, when that four-game streak ignited, the Cardinals are rated Top 9 in both EPA allowed per play and opponent success rate per snap. They’ve allowed 16 or fewer points in four of those five games and collected 16 total sacks in that span, including five in the loss to Seattle.
The Minnesota Vikings have come back to earth after their hot start to 2024 and even Minnesota’s current four-game winning run has come with close calls, panning out to a 2-1-1 ATS count.
Quarterback Sam Darnold has gone from MVP dark horse to a likely one-and-done placeholder, and that’s if he survives the entire season. He’s been hanging on to the football for far too long, leading to the second-most QB hurries, the ninth-highest pressure rate, and 31 sacks on the season (sixth most).
His counterpart, Kyler Murray, is the best quarterback the Vikes' defense has faced in a while, after roughing up the likes of Caleb Williams, Will Levis, Mac Jones, and Joe Flacco. Minnesota’s stop unit succumbed to more talented passers like Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and Jordan Love.
This spread is moving downward, but you can still find Arizona +4 out there — an undervalued key number in the point spread pecking order.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals
My pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3
Best odds: -115 at BetMGM
Thursday games routinely spit out whack-ass results. Mix a little snow into those midweek matchups and you have chaos laced with lunacy.
The Pittsburgh Steelers fell victim to just that last Thursday, losing to the rival Browns in the white stuff. I’m not going to put too much weight into that stumble.
In fact, playing last Thursday kind of counteracts the Cincinnati Bengals rest edge (coming off a bye), with Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin getting extra time to prep for the Bengals in Week 13.
Tomlin is 63-36 SU when coming off a loss in the regular season and covers the spread at a 57% clip in those bounce-back spots. Give Tomlin’s team the points (which alone is a 65% cash cow since 2007) in those scenarios and the Steelers are 21-11 ATS (65.6%) as underdogs coming off a loss under Tomlin’s tutelage.
Pittsburgh can put the final nail in the coffin for Cincinnati. The Bengals’ “bad start” to the schedule may just actually be a bad season and whatever hope was hanging around in Cincy was gutted after two heart-breaking losses.
The Steelers' defense is a Top 5 stop unit, ranked among the elite in EPA allowed per play and Defensive DVOA while creating plenty of game-changing plays in the form of 22 total takeaways (T-2nd) and 68 QB hits/sacks on the season.
The Bengals’ pass protection is just bad, ranked 26th in pass block win rate while allowing Joe Burrow to suffer 26 sacks and 43 QB hits (third most). Cincinnati
Pittsburgh has proven itself against top-tier offenses in recent weeks, limiting Washington to 242 yards in a 28-27 win that was stronger than the final score indicates and checking Baltimore for an 18-16 victory.
It’s going to be a bitter cold Sunday in Cincinnati to boot, with “feels like” temperatures in the low 20s. Sounds like Steelers football weather to me.
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Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Baltimore Ravens
My pick: Philadelphia Eagles +3
Best odds: -110 at bet365
As I often do when writing this column, sometimes you just bet the best team getting the points that week. It’s tough to find a team playing better than the Philadelphia Eagles right now.
Philadelphia is on a seven-game tear, squashing its foes with stellar two-way football. Ever since Week 6, the Eagles have sat among the league’s elite.
The defense, which ranks No. 2 in EPA per play during this stretch, is fully integrated into Vic Fangio’s schemes. The stop unit is canning any passing plays past the sticks and stuffing the run, which is what you want when facing the Baltimore Ravens, who take the field on a short week.
Offensively, Philly has gone high-low with a reinvigorated rushing attack (ranked No. 1 since Week 6) setting up Jalen Hurts and the passing playbook to hit home runs over the top. That also fits like a glove, taking on a porous Baltimore defense that has given up the second most passes of 20 or more yards.
Considering the tight spread, this non-conference contest will be close in the final minutes. And it’s there where I trust the Eagles over the Ravens. Philadelphia is one of the best fourth-quarter teams in the pros, boasting an average margin of +4.4 in the closing frame versus Baltimore’s -1.3 deficit in the 4Q.
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