Want to give yourself a fright this Halloween season? Try betting on NFL underdogs.
Taking the points with your NFL picks and predictions can often be just as stressful as sitting through your favorite scary movie.
You know those scenes where the group of teens go into the old, abandoned house even though they know horrible crimes have been committed there in the past?
That’s kind of what it feels like to place your trust — and money — in an underdog. Those dogs are catching points for a reason, often for dreadful efforts in past games, but we’re getting down on them anyway.
Then there’s the classic “false sense of safety” used in the second act of horror films. The college co-eds carelessly making out in the backseat of the car or the brief break in terror when you believe the villain has been killed.
Oh, you’ll get those “safe” moments betting underdogs.
The point-spread pup will jump out to a 14-0 lead in the first half, thanks to a scoop-and-score and a PI call on a deep shot that sets up a one-yard push into the end zone. It’s safe enough to have you counting your winnings before halftime.
What follows those sabbaticals in scares is the worst part of horror movies: a frightful fight to the finish. The killer bursts back from the dead, the phone call comes from inside the house, and the bodies start dropping like the 49ers’ injury reports.
When you’re betting NFL underdogs, the fourth quarter might as well be the system purge scene from “Cabin in the Woods”. You know the one. And the final minutes should be accompanied by the creepy theme from “Halloween”, as your bet fights for its life against the razor-sharp claws and snarling teeth of the favorite.
Will the spunky underdog survive to see the light of day? We’ll soon find out when my best NFL picks and predictions kick off today in Week 9 action.
Last week: 2-1
Season: 13-11 ATS
NFL Week 9 predictions & picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Miami Dolphins (+6.5) at Buffalo Bills
My pick: Miami Dolphins +6.5
-115 at bet365
Want to know how much shit has changed from the start of the season to now? The Miami Dolphins were a 2.5-point home favorite hosting the Buffalo Bills in Week 2, and things didn’t go so well for the Dolphins in that game.
Miami was not only crushed 31-10 by Buffalo but quarterback Tua Tagovailoa went down with another concussion, which sent the Fins into a tailspin that they have yet to pull out of.
The Dolphins did, however, look much better in last week’s collapse to the Cardinals. With Tua back under center, the Miami offense was a completely different beast. It scored 27 points after failing to post more than 15 without Tagovailoa and wrapped Week 8 as the ninth-best offense in EPA per play.
This improvement wasn’t just about having punch back in the passing game. We watched the rushing attack rumble for 150 yards and average six yards per carry, with RBs De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, and Jaylen Wright sharing the load.
The Bills defense has looked great the past two weeks, holding Seattle and Tennessee to just 10 points apiece. But Buffalo does have a soft spot in the middle of this stop unit.
While the run defense metrics look solid, a lot of that has to do with building big leads early and opponents abandoning the ground game. The Bills have seen the seventh fewest running plays against but give up 4.8 yards per carry (sixth highest). In their losses and closer contests, the defense has buckled for 94, 121, 124, and 271 rushing yards.
Given the state of the Dolphins' defense, Miami coach Mike McDaniel could lean into his talented trio of rushers and try to take the air out of the football and play the possession game, parking Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense on the sideline.
The look-ahead line for this Week 9 divisional dance was Buffalo -3 in the summer and while Miami lugs a 2-5 SU record into Orchard Park, the team taking the field on Sunday is far from the squad that played musical chairs at QB after Tua went down. We're seeing the half-point hooks dissolve on the key number of six, so snatch the Dolphins +6.5 now.
Chicago Bears (+1.5) at Arizona Cardinals
My pick: Chicago Bears +1.5
-120 at FanDuel
The Chicago Bears shouldn’t be 4-3 SU heading into Week 9 and they sure as shit shouldn’t be coming off a loss. And that means, Chicago shouldn’t be pegged as an underdog against the Arizona Cardinals.
The Commanders connecting on that wild Hail Mary with zeros on the clock was plastered everywhere after Washington walked away with an improbable win last Sunday. What we forget, though, is that the Bears should have won that game 21-12 or at least 14-12.
Midway through the fourth quarter, Chicago botched a goal line carry by getting too cute and fumbled the exchange between QB Caleb Williams and (for some reason) offensive lineman Doug Kramer Jr., who was trying to pull a “Refrigerator Perry”.
The Bears would leave points on the table with that turnover, but then forced the Commanders to punt and subsequently went on to score a go-ahead touchdown with just 25 seconds left. Then chaos ensured.
Also omitted in the mayhem is the fact that this Chicago defense did what few teams could, and that contains Jayden Daniels and Commanders' offense. Washington’s star rookie, who was playing through a rib injury, was held to 250 passing yards and no touchdowns before the insane final possession.
The Bears' defense is disruptive, bringing the third-highest pressure rate, generating the seventh most takeaways, and boasting the stingiest red zone defense in the land (36.84% TD rate allowed).
Arizona and its dismal defense has scored wins over injury-plagued teams in the Rams, 49ers, and Chargers while sneaking out a victory against the Dolphins last Sunday. Before Week 8’s results, the look-ahead line was Cardinals +1.5 and we’re seeing some shops sitting closer to that number with Bears as slight faves.
Denver Broncos (+10) at Baltimore Ravens
My pick: Denver Broncos +10
-110 at Pinnacle
The Denver Broncos take a big step up in competition when they cross the country for kickoff in the DMV.
Denver has built its surprise 5-3 SU record on the backs of bad teams, but let’s not discount what defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is doing.
The Broncos rate No. 1 in EPA allowed per play, No. 3 in opponent success rate per play, and No. 5 in Defensive DVOA at FTN. Those advanced metrics strip back the strength of schedule and grade each team on an even plane.
That stellar stop unit locks horns with the Baltimore Ravens attack, which ranks either No. 1 or No. 2 in the offensive flip of those analytics. The Ravens look like Super Bowl contenders most weeks. That is until the fourth quarter kicks off.
Baltimore turns into the pumpkin after the 45-minute mark, getting outscored 93-59 in the final frame this season. That’s led to blown covers as a big favorite, which the Ravens just so happen to be in Week 9.
Those muffed paydays aren’t just reserved for 2024 either. Baltimore has been a bad, bad bet when laying the lumber in recent seasons, boasting a soul-crushing 1-11-1 ATS record when set as a favorite of a touchdown or more since 2021.
Giving that trend a little extra bite is the fact the Ravens could be looking past Denver and to a Thursday Night Football date with the rival Bengals in Week 10, setting up a classic look-ahead spot.
Should Baltimore build an early lead, John Harbaugh could start pulling starters in the second half to save fuel for the short week ahead, compounding the Ravens’ 4Q letdowns. And what would you know… the Broncos are among the best fourth-quarter clubs in football, outscoring foes 7.4 to 4 in those closing 15 minutes.
More NFL Week 9 predictions
- Commanders vs. Giants: Giants team total Under 20.5
- Colts vs. Vikings: Joe Flacco Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- Chargers vs. Browns: J.K. Dobbins Under 72.5 rushing yards
- Raiders vs. Bengals: Bengals -6.5
- Cowboys vs. Falcons: Dak Prescott Over 37.5 passing attempts
- Dolphins vs. Bills: De'Von Achane Over 86.5 rushing + receiving yards
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
