The Las Vegas Raiders head to Arrowhead Field to face the Kansas City Chiefs in an AFC West clash between the best and worst teams in the division.
Kansas City continues to pile up wins and bolster its Super Bowl case, but my Early Raiders vs. Chiefs predictions expect Vegas to cover this massive spread.
Here are my NFL picks for Friday, November 29.
Raiders vs Chiefs predictions
Early spread lean
Raiders +13.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Kansas City Chiefs are 0-4 against the spread as a favorite of a touchdown or more this season, and they haven’t covered a double-digit margin since winning 19-8 over the Denver Broncos as -10.5 chalk in Week 6 last year.
After narrowly beating the Carolina Panthers on the road last week, Kansas City is on an active 0-3 slide as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, despite their 10-1 record, the Chiefs have also only had two wins by more than a one-possession margin.
The wins continue to pile up, but the Chiefs aren’t running away from opponents, so facing a divisional opponent wouldn’t appear to be the best spot to lay a massive -13.5 number.
It probably isn’t an ideal spot for the Las Vegas Raiders, either, though.
The Raiders are either turning to quarterback Desmond Ridder to start his first game of the year or activating Aidan O'Connell (thumb) off injured reserve to play after Gardner Minshew sustained a season-ending broken collarbone in Week 12.
Either way, it’s not ideal for Vegas, especially against the penetrating Kansas City pass rush. The Chiefs have the third-highest QB pressure percentage and rank sixth in PFF pass rush grade, after all.
Still, this is a huge number for the Chiefs to cover, and I expect Kansas City to be trading at a shorter spread by Friday.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 42.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Raiders have been an Over ATM this season, going Over the number in eight of their past 10 games. Vegas and Kansas City have also hit the Over in seven of their past nine meetings, including in Week 8 when the two teams combined for 47 points.
I’m just not buying the Raiders being able to contribute enough to this total in Week 13, and I expect both teams to try and shorten this game by running the football to, in turn, keep the clock running.
The Chiefs allowed a basement-dwelling Carolina Panthers to put 27 points on the board last week, and I’m anticipating a bounce-back effort from the K.C. stop unit. Additionally, as noted, there’s uncertainty at quarterback for Vegas.
Look for Kansas City to dominate the time of possession, limit Vegas, and lead the way in keeping this total Under the number.
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Raiders vs Chiefs live odds
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