Thursday Night Football comes to the left side of the country for an NFC West war between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers.
Primetime means it's “shine time” for San Francisco tight end George Kittle, who doesn’t wither under the Thursday night lights. My Rams vs. 49ers predictions like him to play a big role in this vital divisional dance.
Here are my best NFL picks for this West Coast showdown on December 12.
Rams vs 49ers TNF prediction
My best bet
George Kittle Over 4.5 receptions (+112 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It’s a primetime game for the San Francisco 49ers, which means George Kittle is coming to play. The CEO of Tight End Inc. routinely shines on the big stage and will be going all out in this key NFC West matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.
San Francisco has counted on Kittle to step up in the receiving corps since WR Brandon Aiyuk went down with a season-ending injury, and he’s done exactly that.
Kittle has gone for 512 total yards in his last six games, catching 28 passes on 32 targets. That includes a monster game in Week 14 in which the tight end snatched all six passes his way for 151 yards through the air.
He’s grabbed six receptions in four of those six outings and has had at least five catches in seven of his 10 appearances in 2024. Kittle now sizes up a Los Angeles defense that has watched rival TEs rack up the grabs in recent weeks.
The Rams allowed both of New Orleans’ tight ends to catch five balls in Week 13, surrendered five receptions to New England TE Hunter Henry, and got rolled by Raiders rookie TE Brock Bowers for 10 catches and 93 yards in Week 7.
Los Angeles’ defense runs one of the highest rates of zone coverage in the NFL, which favors San Francisco QB Brock Purdy. He sees a significant upswing against the zone, with his completion percentage soaring and his passer rating of 122.9 versus zone leading all NFL QBs.
And wouldn’t you know it, Kittle also loves exploiting the space of zone schemes as well. He’s the No. 1 tight end in the league against zone according to his PFF-qualified stats, with almost 61% of his total receptions coming against that scheme.
Player projections for Thursday Night Football set the table for a big night from Kittle, with many models calling for five catches from the San Francisco star and more than 65 yards receiving.
My number comes out to 4.8 receptions, which should have the Over 4.5 catches priced at -118. However, FanDuel is paying plus money on this prop, giving great value considering Kittle’s primetime performances and ability to exploit this Rams defense.
Get more analysis from Jason by watching the Sharp 600 podcast!
Get more Rams vs. 49ers picks and Week 15 best bets from Jason — and co-host Todd Fuhrman — by checking out the Sharp 600 podcast!
Watch now on the Covers' YouTube channel!
Rams vs 49ers TNF same-game parlay
George Kittle 5+ receptions
George 60+ receiving yards
Brock Purdy 2+ passing touchdowns
Kittle is forecast for at least five catches and has put up six receptions in three of his last five outings.
Projections all sit north of 60 yards for the 49ers tight end, with a ceiling closer to 67 yards. He’s the best TE vs. zone and faces a zone-heavy scheme from the Rams.
Purdy also loves playing against zone coverage and will connect for at least two TD passes against a bad L.A. defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Rams vs 49ers odds
Rams vs 49ers live odds
Rams vs 49ers opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +2.5 | San Francisco -2.5
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +120 | San Francisco -140
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Rams vs 49ers spread and Over/Under analysis
• San Francisco opened as a 2.5-point home favorite following Los Angeles’ impressive shootout win over Buffalo last Sunday. Some books have jumped to -3, but most shops are dealing the Niners below the key number.
• The Over/Under total hit the board at 47.5 points and wasted little time moving to 49.5 O/U, with one-sided action on the Over out of the gate.
• According to Covers Consensus, 51% of picks are taking the points with the road Rams while 58% of total picks are leaning to the Over.
Rams vs 49ers betting trend to know
Kyle Shanahan owns a 10-5 SU edge over Sean McVay, which has panned out to a 9-6 mark against the spread. The Rams and 49ers have produced a 9-6 Over/Under record in those head-to-head meetings since 2017. Find more NFL betting trends for Rams vs. 49ers.
How to watch Rams vs 49ers
| Location: | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-12, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime |
Rams vs 49ers latest injuries
Rams vs 49ers weather
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