The Los Angeles Rams face off against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field for Sunday Night Football action.
This is the highest total of Week 1 at 52.5, and my favorite NFL player props for this clash are following that narrative of a high-scoring shootout. Here are my three favorite NFL picks for Rams vs. Lions on Sunday, September 8.
Rams vs Lions SNF props
- LaPorta Over 53.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
- Stafford Over 274.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
- St. Brown Over 83.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Rams vs Lions SNF props
Prop bet #1: Sam LaPorta Over 53.5 receiving yards
These teams clashed in the NFC Wild Card game last season, with the Detroit Lions winning a thriller 24-23. Although tight end Sam LaPorta had just three catches for 14 yards, don't forget that was fighting through a badly injured knee and had hyperextended the previous week. A healthy LaPorta will see plenty of targets against a Los Angeles Rams defense that struggled against tight ends last year.
Despite sitting 18th in targets, the Rams ranked 27th in the league in yards per game (58.1) allowed to the position, and they could be even worse this year after trading away top linebacker Ernest Jones IV last week. With future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Donald also retiring in the offseason, the Rams' diminished pass rush will give Lions quarterback Jared Goff plenty of time to find receivers.
LaPorta racked up 889 receiving yards last year, which was the third-highest number for a rookie tight end in the Super Bowl era. He really earned Goff's trust towards the end of the season and saw double-digit targets and 65+ receiving yards in three of his last five games.
Prop bet #2: Matt Stafford Over 274.5 passing yards
L.A. has a balanced offense but Detroit's defense is significantly better against the run than the pass, so expect the Rams to lean on their aerial attack and Matt Stafford. The Lions were 25th in the league in defensive dropback EPA last year while ranking 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.2).
In theory, Detroit should be better against the pass after adding edge rusher Marcus Davenport and corners Carlton Davis and Terrion Arnold in the offseason. However, the injury-plagued Davenport has notched just 2.5 sacks in his last 19 games, and Davis is coming off an ugly season where he allowed a passer rating of 107.4 when targeted. Meanwhile, Arnold is a rookie, so expecting him to turn around this secondary in Week 1 is a bit much.
Stafford completed 25-of-36 passes for 367 yards when these teams clashed in the Wild Card game, and he won't be afraid to attack Detroit's leaky secondary on Sunday.
Prop bet #3: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 84.5 receiving yards
Tight ends and running backs get plenty of looks in the passing game in Detroit's system, but if Goff is looking to target a wide receiver, chances are good it's Amon-Ra St. Brown. The "Sun God" was named a first-team All-Pro last season after hauling in 119 receptions for 1,515 yards in 16 regular season contests.
St. Brown has been a model of consistency, posting at least 85 receiving yards in 13 of his last 18 games, which includes the Wild Card game where he racked up 110 yards versus the Rams. With Rams top corner Darious Williams sidelined by a hamstring injury this week, look for St. Brown to take advantage.
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