The Los Angeles Rams are falling fast, losing two of their last three and entering play on Sunday with a losing record. They’re still in a favorable position with the NFC West led by two teams at 6-5, but the wins will need to start coming soon.
The outlook for the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South is just as favorable with the teams ahead of them struggling, but my Rams vs. Saints predictions expect the visitors to come to on top.
Let's get right into our NFL picks for Sunday, December 1, 2024, with kick-off set for 4:05 p.m. live on FOX.
Rams vs Saints prediction
Who will win Rams vs Saints?
The Rams love to throw, and this Saints secondary may not be ready for it. Sure, they rank 15th in DVOA against the pass, but we can take a clue from both the volume of passing plays they’ve allowed coupled with some ugly results in recent games here and project the Rams to come away with this one.
New Orleans looks to be slipping defensively, while L.A. is trending back up with the return of two key wideouts, and in a game where both defenses should be called into question, I expect the more talented and proven of the two offenses to shine through.
My best bet
Rams -2.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This is a game that’s going to be dictated by each team’s ability to throw the ball. While the New Orleans Saints have leaned on the ground game this season, and few teams have decided to throw on the Los Angeles Rams, L.A. has been abysmal against the pass with 8.2 yards allowed per attempt, the second-worst mark in the league.
L.A., on the other side, has been a pass-happy offense that has enjoyed some moderate success there. Not only will they take a crack at a defense that sits in the bottom five of the league in most categories, but they’ll do so in a time of growth offensively with an abundance of skill position players making their way back to the offense in recent weeks.
The Saints have allowed over seven yards per pass in the last two games and just allowed a 377-yard passing game to Jameis Winston and the Cleveland Browns in Week 11 before their bye.
This Rams offense took a huge step forward in Week 11, scoring 28 points and racking up 295 yards on just 18 completions, and while it came against a soft New England Patriots secondary we can also use a qualifier for their follow-up game against a strong Philadelphia Eagles defense where their offense took a slight step back, but still managed to move the ball on the ground and manage 6.8 yards per attempt.
I trust this Rams passing attack a heck of a lot more than the Saints’, and it would appear L.A. has been making some progress on both sides of the ball while New Orleans’ secondary has really been called into question against some suspect offenses.
Teams have been throwing on New Orleans all season long, with good reason, and that should enable the Rams to tap into what they do best and lean on an offense that has returned Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in the last few games and is starting to look like the one which lit the league on fire in the middle part of the season.
Rams vs Saints same-game parlay
Rams -2.5
Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Foster Moreau Over 17.5 receiving yards
The line here on Matthew Stafford to throw multiple touchdown passes is quite heavy but with good reason. The veteran signal-caller has done so in four of his last five games and is operating with an offense that ranks 13th in touchdowns per game but suits just 20th in rushing touchdowns on average.
The Saints have yielded two or more passing touchdowns in half of their last two games, and as we expect Stafford to have a field day against this middling secondary there are surely plenty of scores on the menu. New Orleans has been stingy against the run in the red zone to boot, so it’s going to take an aerial attack from L.A. to run up the score.
Then, I’ll go after a Rams defense that ranks just 19th in the league in DVOA against the tight end position, and one that has allowed 55.3 yards per game on just 6.5 targets on average.
You might think I’d be eyeing Juwan Johnson here, but it’s hard to do that when he’s not on the field. Despite his pass-catching prowess, it’s been Foster Moreau who’s played the overwhelming number of snaps at the position, and he was rewarded with four targets last time out – catching three for 50 yards against Cleveland.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Rams vs Saints odds
Rams vs Saints live odds
Rams vs Saints opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles -2.5 | New Orleans +2.5
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -150 | New Orleans +120
- Over/Under: Over 47 | Under 47
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Rams vs Saints spread and Over/Under analysis
- There’s been little movement in the spread, which briefly hit three points but settled back down at the opening line.
- A hefty 74% of the bets and 73% of the money is on the Rams to cover.
- The total has been climbing all week after an instant dip down to 46.5 points, reaching 49 points on Wednesday and moving to 49.5 on Friday.
- The Over has accounted for just 46% of the tickets but 75% of the handle.
Rams vs Saints betting trend to know
The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.75 Units / 52% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Rams vs. Saints.
Rams vs Saints game info
| Location: | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-1, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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