The Cleveland Browns welcome the Baltimore Ravens to the Dawg Pound in Week 21 of NFL action this Sunday.
Cleveland lost quarterback Deshaun Watson to a season-ending injury last week and with Jameis Winston taking over, my Ravens vs. Browns predictions are betting on a young wide receiver to step up.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this AFC North rivalry game on October 26 at Huntington Bank Field at 1:00 p.m., live on CBS.
Ravens vs Browns predictions & picks
Spread
This spread got as high as Ravens -11.5 before money poured in on the Browns bringing that number down to -8.5. That isn't surprising since Jameis Winston is being viewed as an upgrade from Deshaun Watson and this is a lot of points to spot a home team in a divisional rivalry. If you didn't get the Browns above the key number of 10, I'd stay away from betting on this spread.
Moneyline
The Ravens have slimmed from -650 to -450 on the moneyline but there's still no value in betting that number. The Browns are +350 on the ML which offers some upside as a home underdog in a rivalry game. Especially since the Ravens could be without their top WR in Zay Flowers and best CB in Marlon Humphrey. Keep in mind that the Browns upset the Ravens as 6-point underdogs when they previously clashed last November in Baltimore.
Over/Under
The total has ticked up to 44.5 from the opening number of 42.5. Winston should be better than Watson who was 28th among 31 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE. Nick Chubb should also be better in his second game back following a season-ending knee injury and Cleveland's line is getting healthier as well.
My Ravens vs Browns best bet
Cedric Tillman Over 38.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
With the Baltimore Ravens installed as 8.5-point chalk, there's a strong chance that the Cleveland Browns will play with a negative game script and be forced to air the ball out with Jameis Winston. Winston is turnover-prone but has a strong arm and isn't afraid to attack downfield which will benefit receivers like Cedric Tillman.
Cleveland traded away No. 1 receiver Amari Cooper before last week's game against the Bengals and Tillman stepped into the starting role logging 82% of the offensive snaps. He ended up seeing 12 targets and hauled in eight of them for 81 yards. Winston took over on the final drive of the game and connected with Tillman on a 25-yard throw while also finding him in the end zone for a two-point conversion.
Tillman was drafted in the third round last year after an injury-plagued senior season at Tennessee. He was terrific as a junior, however, racking up 1,081 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns in the always-tough SEC.
The Ravens are 28th in the league in defensive dropback EPA and it looks like they'll likely be without top corner Marlon Humphrey who has missed practice this week with a knee injury.
Ravens vs Browns same-game parlay
Cedric Tillman Over 38.5 receiving yards
Alt Total Over 39.5
Ravens Alt spread -6.5
The Browns were first in the league in defensive EPA last year but rank a modest 17th this year. They were shredded by the Commanders who do similar things to this Ravens offense that has averaged 35 ppg over their last five contest.
Flowers hasn't suited up in practice due to an ankle injury which is the primary reason I'm not more bullish on the Over 44.5. That said, I'll gladly play the Over 39.5 and parlay it with taking the Ravens under a touchdown.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Ravens vs Browns odds
Ravens vs Browns live odds
Ravens vs Browns opening odds
- Spread: Baltimore -9.5 | Cleveland +9.5
- Moneyline: Baltimore -550 | Cleveland +400
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Ravens vs Browns betting trend to know
The Ravens have covered the first-half spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.10 Units / 29% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Browns.
How to watch Ravens vs Browns
| Location: | Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-27, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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