Monday Night Football’s “HarBowl” could be one of the biggest brotherly battles since the Undertaker took on Kane at WrestleMania XIV, with John Harbaugh’s Baltimore Ravens visiting Jim Harbaugh’s Los Angeles Chargers.
The total for this Week 12 finale is a tall one, with 51 points promising plenty of scoring. That leaves the “touchdown anytime” odds wide open with seven players priced below 2/1 in this popular prop market.
I jump into the prop odds for this sibling rivalry and give my best Ravens vs. Chargers anytime touchdown picks for November 25.
Ravens anytime touchdown pick
Isaiah Likely anytime touchdown
+380 at FanDuel
Isaiah Likely and fellow tight end Mark Andrews have gone up and down the touchdown anytime odds all season, with the former currently in the “down” position. He’s priced as high as +380 to score a touchdown on Monday night while Andrews sits as short as +175.
Likely returned from injury against Pittsburgh in Week 11, playing 49% of snaps to Andrews’ 69%. However, the third-year TE drew five targets and caught four of those balls for 75 yards, while Andrews saw three targets for two receptions and just 22 yards.
The Baltimore Ravens run the seventh-highest rate of 12 personnel (two tight ends), so both TEs will get plenty of run, and face a Los Angeles Chargers defense that almost exclusively plays zone coverage (fourth-most usage).
Andrews is among the best tight ends in the NFL against man-to-man but when it comes to finding gaps in zone schemes, Likely is the more effective pass catcher — ranked ninth among all qualified TEs at PFF.
What’s more, L.A.’s defense could be missing key parts of that zone coverage, especially as it pertains to keeping tabs on tight ends. Linebacker Denzel Perryman is out (L.A.’s fourth-best coverage LB/DE) while Khalil Mack (first in coverage) and Bud Dupree (third) are questionable.
Chargers anytime touchdown pick
Quentin Johnston anytime touchdown
+210 at FanDuel
Quentin Johnson is the third-shortest option for the Chargers in the “touchdown anytime” odds, priced around +200 across the industry, despite finding the end zone in three straight showings.
In terms of just being out there on almost every snap, the second-year WR is as busy as they come. Johnson has logged snap rates of 83% and 82% the past two games and with fellow receiver Ladd McConkey nursing a shoulder injury (currently questionable), my NFL picks believe there’s a high ceiling in terms of targets tonight.
Johnson was targeted eight times but caught just two of those balls in the win over Cincinnati last Sunday, including a 26-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter. He hit for a 16-yard TD versus Tennessee in Week 10 and a 66-yard home-run score versus Cleveland in Week 9.
The Ravens defense blends man and zone schemes in terms of coverage and has been susceptible to the deep pass, allowing 50 connections of 20 or more yards (second-most) heading into Week 12. The 6-foot-4 Johnson is at his best in intermediate-to-deep routes.
Regardless of scheme, Baltimore’s pass defense is horrendous. It ranks 29th in EPA allowed per dropback, 26th in yards allowed per attempt, and has given up 16 passing touchdowns to WRs (second most).
With a tall total calling for a shootout and Monday Night Football running on the fast track at SoFi Stadium, I like Justin Herbert to keep hitting Johnson for those big scores.
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