The last time these two teams hooked up it was in a less than memorable AFC Championship game that finished 17-10 in favor of the Kanas City Chiefs.
While Rashee Rice didn't find the endzone, he did rack up eight catches and our Ravens vs. Chiefs predictions believe the second-year player can make an impact once again tonight.
I break it all down in my NFL picks for Thursday, September 5.
Ravens vs Chiefs TNF prediction
My best bet
Rashee Rice Over 60.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It was a bumpy offseason for Rashee Rice, who, after making headlines for his solid rookie campaign, made them for a series of off-field incidents that jeopardized his football future. As it pertains to the Week 1 odds, the Kansas City Chiefs receiver will be in action.
The team praised Rice’s development over the summer, especially his work against man-to-man coverage. As a rookie, he was one of the best receivers against zone but needed to up his production in one-on-one situations. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes was notably impressed with Rice’s ability to create space and pick up yards after the catch in those man-on-man sets during camp.
“I think he’s going to be a lot better this year, honestly, just the way he’s able to run routes,” Mahomes told reporters. “It was coming along at the end of last year, but he worked on it this whole offseason and he’s in great shape.”
Rice will see plenty of man-to-man coverage on Thursday (Baltimore ran it at the 11th-highest rate in 2023) and will remain a top target, having won Mahomes’ trust in 2023.
He's exceptional against zone and is great at finding the open space when plays break down. With the Baltimore Ravens' pass rush bringing the heat, Mahomes will quickly seek out Rice when under pressure. He quickly became a popular option in the second half of last year, including eight catches on nine targets for 46 yards against the Ravens in the AFC title game.
Kansas City’s receivers room is a work in progress heading into Week 1. Tight end Travis Kelce continues to be option No. 1, but with Hollywood Brown missing the opener due to injury and Mahomes still gelling with rookie speedster Xavier Worthy, Rice is a close No. 2 in the playbook.
Player projections for Rice range from 57 to as many as 75+ yards, with the majority of forecasts north of 60. My number comes out to 63.5 yards from the second-year wideout, which tops Rice’s receiving prop in the Thursday Night Football odds.
Given his place among Mahomes favorite targets, Brown’s absence, and his offseason improvements against man coverage, Rice’s ceiling could be even higher in Week 1.
Ravens vs Chiefs TNF same-game parlay
Rashee Rice Over 60.5 receiving yards
Lamar Jackson Over 48.5 rushing yards
Chiefs moneyline
Rice has improved his ability to get separation in one-on-one coverage and is excellent at seeking out open space when plays break down. His projections are as high as 75 yards on Thursday.
Lamar Jackson rushed for 54 yards in the AFC Championship Game and faces a Chiefs pass rush that is improved from last year when it generated the second-highest pressure rate on QBs. His models call for 50+ yards on the ground.
Kansas City is a tough out at home in primetime. The Ravens will regress on defense just enough to let the Chiefs secure this Week 1 win.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Ravens vs Chiefs odds
Ravens vs Chiefs live odds
Ravens vs Chiefs opening odds
- Spread: Baltimore +2.5 | Kansas City -2.5
- Moneyline: Baltimore +125 | Kansas City -150
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Ravens vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
- When the schedule was released in the spring, sportsbooks opened K.C. as a 2.5-point home favorite for the season opener. That line bounced between the opener and a field goal, with the market consensus landing on Chiefs -3 as we get closer to kickoff.
- The Over/Under total hit the board at 46.5 points and made a brief stop at 47 during the summer before coming down as low as 46 O/U as we enter Week 1.
- The AFC title game listed Baltimore as a 4.5-point home favorite against K.C. with the total closing at 44 points. The 17-10 win saw the Chiefs win and cover as underdogs while the final score stayed well below the number. Andy Reid has won five of his last six matchups with John Harbaugh, going 3-3 ATS in those meetings.
- Patrick Mahomes 258.5 passing yards is the most popular player prop today at FanDuel. 94% of bets and 97% of handle are on the Over.
- The Top 3 most popular anytime touchdown scorers by bet count and handle today at FanDuel are Derrick Henry (-125), Isaiah Pacheco (+105), and Travis Kelce (+100).
Ravens vs Chiefs betting trend to know
Over the past two years, the Chiefs are 3-16 Over/Under at home in both regular season and playoff games — an 84% Under rate. That includes a 1-8 O/U count inside Arrowhead Stadium in 2023. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Chiefs.
Ravens vs Chiefs game info
| Location: | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-5-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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