It's the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs and I'm digging deep to find the best betting value on the defensive player props board. While the Over is often the sexy bet, sometimes betting the Under on player props has the most value in NFL odds.
That's what I'm expecting this weekend as I fade a pair of players on their tackles prop and expect two others to get held off the sack sheet.
Here are my best free sack and tackle NFL picks for the Divisional Round odds.
This week’s best sack and tackle props
- Preston Smith Under 0.25 sacks (-200 at bet365)
- Chris Jones Under 0.25 sacks (-175 at DraftKings)
- Jamel Dean Under 4.5 tackles (+124 at DraftKings)
- Brian Branch Under 3.5 solo tackles (-125 at bet365)
Picks made on January 20 at 3 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of our sack picks and our tackle props
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Best Divisional Round sack picks
Packers vs 49ers: Preston Smith
Green Bay Packers edge rusher Preston Smith has put together a solid season but he's still been held off the sack sheet in five of his last nine games. Smith has a mediocre pass rush grade of 68.1 per PFF and he'll have a tough time beating San Francisco 49ers left tackle Trent Williams on Saturday night.
Williams is an 11-time Pro Bowler and has yet to allow a sack in 438 pass-blocking snaps this season. The Niners run the ball at the second-highest rate in the league and if they get up big as 9.5-point faves, they'll likely lean on their ground game, giving Smith even fewer opportunities to get a sack.
Preston Smith Prop: Under 0.25 sacks (-200 at bet365)
Chiefs vs Bills: Chris Jones
Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones is one of the best interior pass rushers in the NFL but there's good reason to fade him in this matchup with the Buffalo Bills. Jones has a history of disappearing in games against Buffalo. While he had three tackles and a sack when he last faced the Bills in 2022, he had a total of just three tackles and zero sacks in his previous three games against them.
The Bills have allowed the fewest sacks in the league this season with quarterback Josh Allen absorbing just 1.2 sacks per game since Week 2. Buffalo doesn't have a great offensive line but when interior linemen get penetration, Allen has the mobility to get outside the pocket. Even when Allen does get sacked, those hits tend to come from outside edge rushers and not defenders coming up the middle.
Betting a bunch of Unders might not be sexy but defensive play is all about making things ugly and taking the Under 0.25 sacks for Jones is the smart play.
Chris Jones Prop: Under 0.25 sacks (-175 at DraftKings)
Best Divisional Round tackle picks
Buccaneers vs Lions: Jamel Dean
Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Jamel Dean is coming off a massive 10-tackle performance against the Eagles last week but that was a huge outlier for him. Dean had posted fewer than five tackles in each of his previous five games, averaging a modest 3.2 tackles per game during that span.
In addition, while the Eagles prefer to attack deep and towards the sidelines, the Lions prefer to attack the middle of the field, which will provide fewer tackling opportunities for a boundary corner like Dean. With the Under 4.5 tackles for Dean installed at plus money, hammer it.
Jamel Dean Prop: Under 4.5 tackles (+124 at DraftKings)
Buccaneers vs Lions: Brian Branch
Rookie Brian Branch has been a bright spot in the Detroit Lions secondary but his solo tackles O/U of 3.5 is simply too high on Sunday. Branch is coming off an impressive 7-tackle performance against the Rams but only three of those were of the solo variety.
He has three or fewer solo tackles in 10 of his last 12 contests and he's averaging a modest 2.7 per game during that span. Fade Branch on his solo tackles prop on Sunday.
Brian Branch Prop: Under 3.5 solo tackles (-125 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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How are sack and tackle props calculated?
It's important to read the wording associated with the sack props at each specific sportsbook. Most books will list an Over/Under number which is set at 0.25 or 0.75, since players can be credited for 0.5 sacks for sharing a sack with a teammate. Other books will mark a sack as a "yes" or "no" proposition in which case half a sack will count as the player recording a sack.
Books often have props for solo tackles, assists, and tackles which are made up of both solo tackles and assisted.
Best strategies to bet sack and tackle props
There are several factors to consider when handicapping sack totals. The most obvious involves the defensive player himself. How often does he get sacks both in terms of his recent history and also over a larger sample size, and does he consistently generate pressure. A player might have picked up sacks in three consecutive games but if he doesn't consistently beat his blocker, he's likely due for regression. On the other side of things, a player might be held off the sack sheet in four straight games, but if he's constantly pressuring opposing passers, it's only a matter of time before he gets a sack.
Who the defender is matching up against is also an important factor. How well does the projected starter opposite from him perform as a pass blocker and is that opposing player injured or playing out of position? In addition, is the offense able or willing to double-team the defender? Certain quarterbacks also hold on to the ball longer, have less pocket awareness, or don't have the mobility to evade pass rushers.
It's also important to consider how the rest of his team will affect a player's ability to get sacks. Perhaps his defensive coordinator is using him more in coverage, perhaps another defender is poaching his sacks or allowing him to get easier matchups. Improved play in the secondary can also lead to coverage sacks.
Game situation also matters since an offense that throws the ball a lot or is expected to play from behind, will also give a defense more opportunity to get sacks.
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