Best NFL Sack and Tackle Props for Week 15: Thibodeaux Can't Be Contained in the Trenches

Week 15 odds include a matchup between the Falcons and Panthers that only a mother could love, but if you're looking into the NFL odds for defensive player props, you might like what you see as well.

Not only are two offensively incompetent teams playing but messy tropical weather should mean lots of tackling opportunities for hard-nosed linebacker Kaden Elliss. 

I'm also fading Cowboys end DeMarcus Lawrence in a marquee matchup while backing Nick Bosa to abuse a Cardinals rookie. Here are my best free sack and tackle NFL picks for Week 14.

This week’s best sack and tackle props

• Kayvon Thibodeaux Over 0.25 sacks (-125 at bet365)
• Nick Bosa Prop: Over 0.75 sacks (-166 at DraftKings)
• DeMarcus Lawrence Under 0.25 sacks (-175 at DraftKings)
• Kaden Elliss Over 7.5 total tackles (+105 at DraftKings) 
• Quandre Diggs Over 5.5 total tackles (-110 at DraftKings)

Picks made on December 16 at 18:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of our sack picks and our tackle props

Best Week 15 sack picks

Giants vs Saints: Kayvon Thibodeaux

Kayvon Thibodeaux is having a breakout sophomore season for the New York Giants, racking up 11.5 sacks through 13 games. Expect him to add to that tally this Sunday against the New Orleans Saints.

Thibodeaux typically lines up on the right side of the line, so he'll likely match up against Saints left tackle Andrus Peat. A whopping 30.6% of the pressure on Saints quarterback Derek Carr this season has come from that left tackle spot and Peat has a Pro Football Focus pass blocking grade of just 51.2.

Back Thibodeaux to go Over 0.25 sacks here.

Kayvon Thibodeaux Prop: Over 0.25 sacks (-125 at bet365)

49ers vs Cardinals: Nick Bosa

Nick Bosa experienced a somewhat sluggish start to the season, possibly influenced by his holdout or the change in defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers. However, he has recently found his rhythm, and the presence of Chase Young on the opposite side is an added benefit, relieving some pressure.

Bosa has racked up at least 1.5 sacks in four of his last five games and he has an incredible 38 pressures during that span. He'll be lining up against Arizona Cardinals rookie right tackle Paris Johnson Jr. on Sunday. Johnson was taken with the sixth pick in the draft but he's been a disappointment and has surrendered seven sacks — including four in the last three games.

The Over 0.75 sacks for Bosa is juiced to -166, but considering that the 12.5-point underdog Cardinals will likely be playing with a negative game script, the Over still looks like a good bet. 

Nick Bosa Prop: Over 0.75 sacks (-166 at DraftKings)

Cowboys vs Bills: DeMarcus Lawrence

DeMarcus Lawrence is putting together a solid season for the Dallas Cowboys, but that doesn't necessarily mean many sacks. Lawrence hasn't picked up a sack in seven of his last nine games and now takes on a Buffalo Bills line that has been terrific in pass protection this year.

The Bills boast the league's lowest allowance of sacks per game at 1.4. Even if a defender manages to penetrate their offensive line, the challenge doesn't end there — they must contend with Josh Allen, who is both mobile and robust enough to elude potential tacklers.

Take the Under on Lawrence's sack total.

DeMarcus Lawrence Prop: Under 0.25 sacks (-175 at DraftKings)

Best Week 15 tackle picks

Falcons vs Panthers: Kaden Elliss

Atlanta Falcons linebacker Kaden Elliss is coming off a 10-tackle performance against the Bucs and he has racked up at least eight tackles in four of his last six games. This week, Elliss and the Falcons are facing the Carolina Panthers with a powerful pre-holiday storm set to hit Charlotte.

With a high chance of torrential rain and high winds, both teams will be forced to rely on their ground games. That should mean lots of tackling opportunities for Elliss, who operates best near the line of scrimmage.

It would also be beneficial if fellow inside linebacker Nate Landman misses his second-straight contest with a knee injury. Even if Landman suits up at less than 100%, it makes it more likely for Elliss to beat him to the ball.

Kaden Elliss Prop: Over 7.5 total tackles (+105 at DraftKings)

Eagles vs Seahawks: Quandre Diggs

Quandre Diggs is one of the Seattle Seahawks' most reliable defenders and rarely comes off the field. He's fourth on the team with 73 total tackles and he could be in for a busy Sunday against an up-tempo Philadelphia Eagles attack.

The Eagles are eighth in the league with 65.9 plays per game, which should give Diggs plenty of tackling opportunities. The O/U on Diggs' total tackles is set at 5.5 — a number he has surpassed in six of his last seven games.

Quandre Diggs Prop: Over 5.5 total tackles (-110 at DraftKings)

How are sack and tackle props calculated?

It's important to read the wording associated with the sack props at each specific sportsbook. Most books will list an Over/Under number which is set at 0.25 or 0.75, since players can be credited for 0.5 sacks for sharing a sack with a teammate. Other books will mark a sack as a "yes" or "no" proposition in which case half a sack will count as the player recording a sack. 

Books often have props for solo tackles, assists, and tackles which are made up of both solo tackles and assisted.

Best strategies to bet sack and tackle props

There are several factors to consider when handicapping sack totals. The most obvious involves the defensive player himself. How often does he get sacks both in terms of his recent history and also over a larger sample size, and does he consistently generate pressure. A player might have picked up sacks in three consecutive games but if he doesn't consistently beat his blocker, he's likely due for regression. On the other side of things, a player might be held off the sack sheet in four straight games, but if he's constantly pressuring opposing passers, it's only a matter of time before he gets a sack.

Who the defender is matching up against is also an important factor. How well does the projected starter opposite from him perform as a pass blocker and is that opposing player injured or playing out of position? In addition, is the offense able or willing to double-team the defender? Certain quarterbacks also hold on to the ball longer, have less pocket awareness, or don't have the mobility to evade pass rushers.

It's also important to consider how the rest of his team will affect a player's ability to get sacks. Perhaps his defensive coordinator is using him more in coverage, perhaps another defender is poaching his sacks or allowing him to get easier matchups. Improved play in the secondary can also lead to coverage sacks.

Game situation also matters since an offense that throws the ball a lot or is expected to play from behind, will also give a defense more opportunity to get sacks. 

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