Best NFL Sack and Tackle Props for Week 17: Bengals Can't Keep Up With Jones

Week 17 of the NFL season is already here and since books can be a bit reluctant to put out many defensive player props on the final week of the regular season, this might be the last time we get a full slate of sack and tackle NFL odds to choose from.

So let's make it count with some winning bets as I check out the Week 17 odds and bring you my best free NFL picks for sack and tackle prop picks — including betting on Kansas City's Chris Jones to break out of his mini-slump. 

This week’s best sack and tackle props

• Khalil Mack Under 0.25 sacks (+140 at bet365)
• Sam Hubbard Under 0.25 sacks (-150 at DraftKings)
• Chris Jones Over 0.25 sacks (-120 at DraftKings)
• Micah McFadden Over 3.5 solo tackles (+120 at bet365)
• Jessie Bates III Over 6.5 tackles (-125 at bet365)

Picks made on December 30 at 4 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of our sack picks and our tackle props

Best Week 17 sack picks

Chargers vs Broncos: Khalil Mack

Khalil Mack destroyed left tackle Garrett Bolles so badly back in 2019 that he offered to help the young left tackle in the offseason. A lot has changed since then with Bolles turning from a penalty machine to one of the top pass blockers in the game, and Mack is now 32 years old.

While Mack is still highly productive and has racked up 15 sacks this season, he isn't as consistent on a game-to-game basis as he used to be. He's been held without a sack in nine of 15 games, including the Chargers' Week 14 showdown against the Broncos. Bolles has the third-best pass blocking grade (84.4) in the NFL among tackles this season and hasn't allowed a sack since Week 8.

The Broncos will be starting Jarrett Stidham at QB on Sunday and while young QBs can often take a lot of sacks, his career sack percentage of 8.4% isn't abnormally high. I also expect the Broncos to employ a conservative offense with short drops and plenty of rush attempts in what should be a low-scoring contest against the punch-less Bolts. Fade the Khalil Mack odds on his sacks total here.

Khalil Mack Prop: Under 0.25 sacks (+140 at bet365)

Bengals vs Chiefs: Sam Hubbard

Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard is a productive player but he's nowhere near the level of teammate Trey Hendrickson. While Hendrickson has racked up 16 sacks this season, Hubbard has a modest five sacks while posting a mediocre pass rush grade of 58.4 through 15 games.

Hubbard has been held off the sack sheet in four of his last five games and now faces a Chiefs side that doesn't give up many sacks. The Chiefs have allowed the second-fewest sacks in the league (25) and while their blocking isn't great on the edge, Patrick Mahomes has a quick release, excellent pocket awareness, and the mobility to escape pressure.

Cincinnati's pass defense has been so poor that they rarely wind up with coverage sacks either, and Hubbard will be hard-pressed to come away with a sack in this contest.

Sam Hubbard Prop: Under 0.25 sacks (-150 at DraftKings)

Bengals vs Chiefs: Chris Jones

The Chris Jones odds are priced at -120 to pick up at least half a sack in this game, which is one of his lowest prices all season. Jones has just one sack in his last five games but there are plenty of signs that indicate he'll soon bust out of his slump.

While Jones hasn't been getting to the QB in the last month, he's a proven All-Pro caliber player with four Pro Bowl selections in his career and 15.5 sacks last season. He also has the third-best pass rushing grade (89.2) in the league among DL so he is consistently getting pressure. He also has a history of disrupting the Bengals offensive line, picking up two sacks against them in the AFC Championship last season while also getting two sacks in the 2021 regular season finale against them.

Cincinnati's offensive line isn't as terrible this season as it has been in recent years but the Bengals are still a Bottom-10 team in sacks allowed. New quarterback Jake Browning has also taken a whopping 42 pass attempts in each of his last two games which has led to a total of seven sacks. Expect Jones to get back in the sack column against a pass-happy Bengals squad.

Chris Jones Prop: Over 0.25 sacks (-120 at DraftKings)

Best Week 17 tackle picks

Rams vs Giants: Micah McFadden

Giants linebacker Micah McFadden was one of the most productive linebackers in college but he fell to the fifth round of the 2022 draft because of questions about his athleticism. While he took a while to earn playing time as a rookie, he got more burn as the season progressed, and this season he's been on the field for 68% of their defensive snaps.

McFadden has logged at least four solo tackles in nine of 14 games this year and he should be in for a busy day on Sunday. The Giants will be facing an up-tempo Rams offense that has been heavily reliant on the run over the last month, so he should get plenty of opportunities to cash the Over 3.5 on his solo tackles prop.

Micah McFadden Prop: Over 3.5 solo tackles (+120 at bet365)

Falcons vs Bears: Jessie Bates III

Atlanta's Jessie Bates III has been one of the best free agent pickups of the year. He has the third-best run defending grade and third-best tackling grade among safeties, and that combined with his strong coverage skills means that he never comes off the field on defense.

Bates exits a blowout win against the Colts where he had a modest six total tackles. However, that snapped a streak of seven consecutive contests where he had 7+ tackles and averaged 9.4 tackles per game.

On Sunday, Bates and the Falcons face a Bears offense that is second in the NFL with 68.7 plays per game over the last six weeks. Back the Jessie Bates III odds to go Over 6.5 total tackles once again.

Jessie Bates Prop: Over 6.5 tackles (-125 at bet365)

How are sack and tackle props calculated?

It's important to read the wording associated with the sack props at each specific sportsbook. Most books will list an Over/Under number which is set at 0.25 or 0.75, since players can be credited for 0.5 sacks for sharing a sack with a teammate. Other books will mark a sack as a "yes" or "no" proposition in which case half a sack will count as the player recording a sack. 

Books often have props for solo tackles, assists, and tackles which are made up of both solo tackles and assisted.

Best strategies to bet sack and tackle props

There are several factors to consider when handicapping sack totals. The most obvious involves the defensive player himself. How often does he get sacks both in terms of his recent history and also over a larger sample size, and does he consistently generate pressure. A player might have picked up sacks in three consecutive games but if he doesn't consistently beat his blocker, he's likely due for regression. On the other side of things, a player might be held off the sack sheet in four straight games, but if he's constantly pressuring opposing passers, it's only a matter of time before he gets a sack.

Who the defender is matching up against is also an important factor. How well does the projected starter opposite from him perform as a pass blocker and is that opposing player injured or playing out of position? In addition, is the offense able or willing to double-team the defender? Certain quarterbacks also hold on to the ball longer, have less pocket awareness, or don't have the mobility to evade pass rushers.

It's also important to consider how the rest of his team will affect a player's ability to get sacks. Perhaps his defensive coordinator is using him more in coverage, perhaps another defender is poaching his sacks or allowing him to get easier matchups. Improved play in the secondary can also lead to coverage sacks.

Game situation also matters since an offense that throws the ball a lot or is expected to play from behind, will also give a defense more opportunity to get sacks. 

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