The NFL Week 5 odds close out with a non-conference clash on Monday Night Football, when the Kansas City Chiefs welcome the New Orleans Saints to Arrowhead Stadium.
Kansas City is unblemished through four weeks but doesn’t look like its dominant self, especially considering it could be down one of Patrick Mahomes’ top targets. The NFL odds are still setting the Super Bowl champs as sizeable home chalk against a New Orleans team on a two-game tumble.
My Saints vs. Chiefs predictions dive into the spread and total and give my early NFL picks for October 7.
Saints vs Chiefs predictions
Early spread lean
Chiefs -5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Kansas City Chiefs were as big as -6 for this primetime matchup, but with wideout Rashee Rice expected to miss Monday (and beyond), the KC offense is down one of its biggest weapons. Rice led all receivers in targets, receptions, and yards, leaving Patrick Mahomes to trust his other options in Week 5.
This is a tough spot for the New Orleans Saints, who are playing in their second straight road game and their third away contest in four weeks. New Orleans is fresh off a weird finish against Atlanta, in which NOLA didn’t allow an offensive touchdown but still lost 26-24.
Special teams gaffes and a pick-six did the Saints in, as well as an offense that has cooled quickly after a red-hot start to 2024. New Orleans has managed only 36 combined points the past two weeks after putting up scores of 47 and 44 in the opening two outings.
The Chiefs are by far the strongest defense the Saints have faced. Kansas City is 14th in EPA allowed per play and 15th in defensive DVOA on the year but has tightened the bolts the past two games (sixth in EPA allowed last two weeks).
Kansas City’s defense will keep this game close and leave the rest up to Mahomes. Even without Rice, this is still a dangerous attack. The Saints could be missing some key bodies on defense, as well. Former KC linebacker Willie Gay, LB Demario Davis, and safety Tyrann Mathieu are questionable.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 42 (-112 at FanDuel)
My analysis
As mentioned, Kansas City will have to lean into its other receivers with Rice out of action. The Chiefs’ passing game isn’t as explosive as it used to be, with Mahomes boasting the fewest air yards per attempt in the NFL (5.6) and keeping everything short and quick.
The rushing game is also down a star with running back Isiah Pacheco sidelined, leaving the Chiefs to blow the dust off former RB Kareem Hunt, who was signed this past week. The team managed 101 yards on 26 carries in the win over the Chargers last week, with 12 of those gains coming from Mahomes.
New Orleans’ offense may have taken a step back, but the defense is rating out very well through four showings. The Saints’ stop unit is No. 4 in EPA allowed per play and No. 3 in defensive DVOA. New Orleans is also slamming the door in the red zone, giving up touchdowns at an NFL-best 22.22% entering Week 5.
The Chiefs have struggled when inside the 20-yard line and will likely continue to with Rice out and the rushing attack a mess. Kansas City has scored a touchdown in just five of its 11 trips inside the RZ.
That has KC leaning on the defense to keep opponents at bay. The Chiefs' pass rush is a monster, entering this Monday night meeting third in pressure rate, first in QB hits, and fourth in QB hurries.
Steve Spagnuolo’s schemes blitz at the fourth-highest rate and set their sights on NOLA quarterback Derek Carr, who's seen a flip in output under duress throughout his career. Carr struggled with turnovers against Spagnuolo during this time with the Raiders, throwing at least one interception in each of his six matchups (8 INTs) with KC's defensive coordinator.
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Saints vs Chiefs live odds
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