After an explosive start to the season, Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints have now dropped two in a row and travel to take on Patrick Mahomes and the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.
If Carr & Co. are to right the ship, I believe it will be Rashid Shaheed who contributes in a major way. My Saints vs. Chiefs predictions also see Mahomes leaning on Travis Kelce while continuing to force the issue downfield with Rashee Rice sidelined.
Continue reading for my free NFL picks for October 7.
Saints vs Chiefs MNF props
- Travis Kelce Over 58.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
- Rashid Shaheed Over 48.5 receiving yards (-115 at FanDuel)
- Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions (-140 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Saints vs Chiefs MNF props
Prop bet #1: Travis Kelce Over 58.5 receiving yards
The Kansas City Chiefs escaped with another win last week but it cost them Rashee Rice, whose injury is still unclear but is a sure thing to miss at least the next several weeks.
All eyes are on Travis Kelce to compensate for another untimely loss on offense (Marquise Brown, Isaiah Pacheco). Kelce turned in seven receptions for 89 yards last week — season-high marks for him.
Kelce finished fifth among all pass catchers last week in first read percentage at 47%, further demonstrating that he has once again become Mahomes' favorite target.
And the New Orleans Saints have been soft against tight ends this year, having surrendered 10 receptions for 170 yards to Dallas Goedert and six receptions for 43 yards to backup Cowboys' tight end Luke Schoonmaker.
Prop bet #2: Rashid Shaheed Over 48.5 receiving yards
Rashid Shaheed turned heads of fans and cornerbacks alike last year as he put in some star-level performances throughout the year. Shaheed has been more consistent this season with three games of 70+ yards while garnering at least four targets in every game.
The matchup favors him with Kansas City using press coverage at a league-high 88%, and Shaheed ranking first this year in yards per route run against press.
Targets may funnel Shaheed's way given how well the Chiefs have handled perimeter receivers well this year, with the likes of Zay Flowers (6 receptions/37 yards/0 touchdowns), Ja'Marr Chase (4/35/0), Drake London (6/67/1), and Quentin Johnston (1/9/0) all struggling this year against the Chiefs.
That doesn't bode well for Chris Olave, and his loss will be Shaheed's gain.
Prop bet #3: Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions
If you've read any of my recent Patrick Mahomes or Chiefs prop articles, you know that this is a market I have taken advantage of for over a year now.
Mahomes has thrown an interception in each of his first four games this year and threw one in 11 of his 16 starts last year (69%).
This came after years of cleaner throwing, but has now coincided with the decline in separation ability and reliability within his pass-catching corps with the departure of Tyreek Hill and slow decline of Kelce.
The loss of one more reliable target with Rice now gone further exacerbates Mahomes' need to throw into more contested windows. As usual, expect this to cash.
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