Kyle Pitts was oh-so-close to being a huge hero for the Atlanta Falcons last week.
Instead, the tight end came up one yard short of a touchdown and had the game-winning catch controversially stolen by a missed pass interference call.
Week 4 offers redemption against a divisional rival and my Saints vs Falcons predictions have Pitts tabbed for more positive production.
I break down the spread, total, and player prop odds in my NFL picks for Sunday, September 29.
Saints vs Falcons prediction
My best bet
Kyle Pitts Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Kyle Pitts’ work against the New Orleans Saints has been a mixed bag over the past few seasons, but things are looking up for Week 4.
Not only is he gaining ground with new quarterback Kirk Cousins, but the Saints defense is feeling the bite of the injury bug — nowhere more significant than at linebacker.
Entering Sunday, NOLA could be without its top two coverage linebackers as Nephi Sewell is still out (knee) and Demario Davis is questionable with a hamstring injury (LB D'Marco Jackson also questionable). That leaves a significant gap in the middle of the pass defense, where Pitts can set up shop on short and intermediate routes.
The Atlanta Falcons TE is coming off his biggest performance of 2024 in the loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday night. He grabbed just two of five targets but one of those was for a 50-yard gain, giving him 59 yards on the day.
Pitts missed a touchdown by a yard on that big catch and was mugged in the end zone on the final play for Atlanta, with a botched pass interference call taking away what could’ve been the game-winning TD.
Pitts did see his snaps decline drastically in Week 3, slipping to just 69% after playing 74% in Week 2 and 96% of snaps in Week 1. However, this matchup with New Orleans sets up well. After all, this NOLA defense just gave up 170 yards to Philadelphia TE Dallas Goedert last Sunday and now has big holes in the LB corp.
What’s more, the Saints’ pass rush is doing a good job getting after opposing quarterbacks. New Orleans has a pressure rate of 28% which has cooked up 11 sacks and 19 QB hurries – second most in the league. With Cousins’ mobility on par with a Heinz Ketchup pour, he’ll use Pitts as his short-yardage safety valve when the Saints come marching in the pocket.
Projections for Pitts are glowing in Week 4. While his receiving yard total is at 33.5 yards (down from totals of 39.5 O/U in the last two games and 44.5 O/U in Week 1), forecasts call for at least 39 yards with some models as high as 50 yards on Sunday. My number lands around 44 receiving yards from Pitts, which is more than enough to top that prop total.
Saints vs Falcons same-game parlay
Kyle Pitts Over 32.5 receiving yards
Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown
Falcons moneyline
Pitts’ projections are as high as 50 yards facing a Saints defense decimated in the middle of the field.
Bijan Robinson finally broke the TD seal last weekend and will get the goal line carried to crack the end zone again in Week 4.
The curtain was pulled back on NOLA last week and injuries are adding up, giving the Falcons the inside track to a big divisional win at home.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Saints vs Falcons odds
Saints vs Falcons live odds
Saints vs Falcons opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +1 | Atlanta -1
- Moneyline: New Orleans +101 | Atlanta -113
- Over/Under: Over 43 | Under 43
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Saints vs Falcons spread and Over/Under analysis
• This NFC South matchup opened with Atlanta as a 1.5-point home favorite after losing a close one to the Chiefs on Sunday night. With the Saints coming off a dud in Week 3 and injuries stacking up on both sides of the ball, this spread has jumped to Falcons -2.5.
• The Over/Under total opened at 45.5 points but has been worn down over the course of the week, with Under play chopping the number to as low as 42 points.
• On top of those injuries at linebacker, New Orleans could also be without running back Alvin Kamara. He did return to practice on Thursday, however. The offense has cluster injuries and QB Derek Carr is nursing a sore groin.
Saints vs Falcons betting trend to know
The Falcons have played Under the total in both home games so far this season and are now 9-17 Over/Under at home going back to the 2021 season (65% Unders). Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Falcons.
Saints vs Falcons game info
| Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-29, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Saints vs Falcons latest injuries
Saints vs Falcons weather
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