The NFC West is a log jam heading into Week 11, but a divisional battle between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers will put some space in the standings after the smoke clears.
Seattle is fresh off a bye week and needs a notable win after losing five of its last six games. My Seahawks vs. 49ers predictions lean on running back Kenneth Walker to roll over San Francisco today.
I dissect the spread, total, and player props for this NFC West war and give my best NFL picks for November 17.
Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, with the game airing on FOX.
Seahawks vs 49ers prediction
Who will win?
The San Francisco 49ers are a sizable favorite for Week 11, with the moneyline odds (-303) giving the home side an implied win probability of 75%. That is down from the initial moneyline price of -333, with bettors showing interest in Seattle.
The Seattle Seahawks have had two weeks to rest, recover, and prep for San Francisco. Seattle has been one of the most injured rosters in the NFL this season, so we’ll see the Seahawks at near full power in Week 11.
That said, I don’t know if it will be enough to steal a win in Santa Clara, especially with the Niners returning key pieces last week. I’ll say Seattle stays within the +6.5 spread but falls 27-23 in Week 11.
My best bet
Kenneth Walker Over 54.5 rushing yards (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The bye week came at a good time for Seattle, as the Hawks are bogged in a bad slump, with injuries and ailments at the core of that collapse.
Running back Kenneth Walker III was among the walking wounded in the first half of the schedule, missing two games early on due to various injuries while also dealing with an illness in Week 7.
Week 11 will be the healthiest Walker has been since the season opener and it’s not just his fresh legs promising a big day against the San Francisco 49ers.
Seattle’s offensive line has also been a MASH unit, with blocking bodies in and out in the first nine games. With the bye in the rearview, the Seahawks aim to have offensive tackle Abraham Lucas back for the first time in 2024. That gives this poor run block unit a shot in the arm and sets Walker up for a productive day.
Although the former Michigan State star recorded just 14 carries for 32 yards in the 36-24 loss to the 49ers in Week 6, that had a lot to do with Seattle falling behind 16-0 in the first half and needing to go pass-heavy to catch up. We saw a similar script play out in the blowout loss to Buffalo in Week 8, with Walker finishing with nine runs for just 12 yards.
However, Walker is coming off his busiest showing of the season, carrying the ball 25 times for 83 yards in a crushing overtime loss to Los Angeles in Week 9. He faces a San Francisco defense that isn’t playing up to past standards, notably when stuffing the run.
The 49ers rank 23rd in EPA allowed per carry and 22nd in opponent success rate per run, sitting middle of the road in run-stop win rate at ESPN. San Francisco gave up 184 yards on the ground in the loss to Kansas City in Week 7 and watched Tampa Bay rumbled for 110 rushing yards last Sunday.
Week 11 player projections are very positive for Walker, with most models well beyond his rushing yards total of 54.5 yards O/U. Those forecasts range from 52 to 71 yards, with my number coming in north of 64 rushing yards on Sunday.
Seahawks vs 49ers same-game parlay
Kenneth Walker 50+ rushing yards
Christian McCaffrey 25+ receiving yards
Seahawks +6.5
Walker is the healthiest he’s been all season and is projected for 60-plus rushing yards in Week 11.
Christian McCaffrey looked great in his first game back with 68 yards through the air and is forecasted for more than 25 yards receiving versus Seattle.
The Seahawks have had two weeks to prep for what is a do-or-die game for them in the NFC West. I don’t know if they win outright, but this is a big spread for a divisional rivalry.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Seahawks vs 49ers odds
Seahawks vs 49ers live odds
Seahawks vs 49ers opening odds
- Spread: Seattle +7 | San Francisco -7
- Moneyline: Seattle +260 | San Francisco -350
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Seahawks vs 49ers spread and Over/Under analysis
• San Francisco opened as a touchdown favorite at home in Week 11 and early play on the Seahawks knocked this spread off the key number to Niners -6.5.
• The total hit the board at 49.5 points and jumped to 50.5 with early play on the Over. However, we’ve seen this number slide downward since then, sitting as low as 48 points O/U.
• According to Covers Consensus, 66% of spread picks are laying the points with the 49ers while 55% of total picks are taking the Over.
Seahawks vs 49ers betting trend to know
Under Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco is just 6-5 SU and 3-7-1 ATS as a home favorite of more than a field goal versus a divisional opponent. Find more NFL betting trends for Seahawks vs. 49ers.
Seahawks vs 49ers game info
| Location: | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-17, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Seahawks vs 49ers latest injuries
Seahawks vs 49ers weather
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