The bruising AFC North race looks like it's going right to the wire, and the Baltimore Ravens can bolster their chances with a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers at M&T Bank Stadium today. Kickoff comes your way at 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
Pittsburgh edged a slugfest when these teams met in November, but my Steelers vs. Ravens predictions expect Derrick Henry to power a better effort from the Baltimore offense here.
My NFL picks dig into the top betting angles for this Saturday, December 21 matchup, including the very real possibility of another low-scoring nail-biter.
Steelers vs Ravens predictions
- Spread pick: Steelers +7 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline pick: Ravens moneyline (-350 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under pick: Under 44.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Best Bet: Derrick Henry Over 82.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Steelers vs Ravens spread prediction
This iconic rivalry rarely disappoints and seven of the last nine meetings have been decided by five points or less.
The Steelers are without George Pickens but T.J. Watt is good to go and Lamar Jackson has struggled to solve this Pittsburgh defense. Jackson is 2-5 against Mike Tomlin’s men and I’m wary of laying this many points with the hosts.
Steelers vs Ravens moneyline prediction
While the Ravens haven’t been convincing against the spread, the hosts can take comfort from how messy the Pittsburgh offense looked in last weekend’s loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
I prefer to stay away from the moneyline in this one, and it would be no surprise if this contest comes down to a late field goal.
Steelers vs Ravens Over/Under prediction
With a ferocious defense and an erratic offense, the Steelers have all the right credentials for the Under. That’s been a winning ticket in the past eight meetings between these teams.
Baltimore is going to stick to its run-first identity so even a big output from the hosts would likely mean clock-draining drives.
My best bet
Derrick Henry Over 82.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Lamar Jackson can leave the cape at home for this one because the Baltimore Ravens’ best path to victory here is to feed Derrick Henry.
A cold-weather game against a physical defense is exactly the situation where Henry thrives, and I expect Jackson to learn from some of his stumbles against the Steelers last time out where he forced the issue too often.
Henry has pummeled his way to 1,474 yards on the ground this year and he’s gone past this 82.5 O/U line eight times.
In the loss to Pittsburgh in Week 11, King Henry was held in check — 13 carries for 65 yards — and Baltimore has to do a better job of riding their No.1 back here.
There will be chances for Jackson to pick on the right matchups for Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews, but it all starts with the threat of Henry (and Lamar) in the backfield.
I don’t see a game script where the Ravens fall behind and have to lean into the passing game, so Henry should be primed for massive volume. I’m wagering that he’ll make it count.
Steelers vs Ravens same-game parlay
Derrick Henry Over 80.5 rushing yards
Under 44.5
Pat Freiermuth Over 3.5 receptions
These teams specialize in old school football and I’m taking the Under for my SGP. Jackson just hasn’t looked comfortable against Pittsburgh’s schemes and there are few secrets between these teams (and these longstanding head coaches).
You have to go back to November 2020 for the last Over between these teams, and the Steelers didn’t score in the second half against the Eagles last Sunday.
Without George Pickens, Russell Wilson will have to look elsewhere for the inevitable third-and-long situations. Pat Freiermuth should be one of the popular choices to soak up those targets.
Freiermuth only had three catches last time out but he’s had at least six targets in two of his past three outings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Steelers vs Ravens odds
Steelers vs Ravens live odds
Steelers vs Ravens opening odds
- Spread: Pittsburgh +6.5 | Baltimore -6.5
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +238 | Baltimore -282
- Over/Under: Over 46 | Under 46
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Steelers vs Ravens spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Ravens are 4-2 at M&T Bank Stadium and they’ve hit the 2H moneyline in 10 of their past 15 games.
- Count out the Steelers at your own risk. They’re 10-4 ATS this year and 10-4 SU too.
- None of the past eight matchups in this rivalry have reached the 40-point mark.
- Covers Consensus says 60% of picks are on Pittsburgh with 53% backing the Over.
Steelers vs Ravens betting trend to know
The Steelers have covered the 2H spread in 12 of their last 14 contests. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Ravens.
Steelers vs Ravens game info
| Location: | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-21-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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