The Best Super Bowl Long-Shot Bet: Storming the Field

Long-shot bets pay a ton for a reason and that’s because of the improbability of hitting them. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t any +EV ones available. With all the Super Bowl 58 odds offerings, finding and picking off some possibly poorly priced markets has never been easier.

My favorite long-shot bet for our Super Bowl predictions could be cashed before the third drive and with a little shopping around I can find it at 700 points higher between books in the NFL odds.
  
Here is my best Super Bowl long-shot prop bet for your NFL picks for Chiefs vs. 49ers on Sunday, February 11.

Super Bowl long-shot bet

• Both teams to score TDs on opening drives (+1,500 at FanDuel)

Pick made on 2/6.

Best Super Bowl long-shot bet

Under the FanDuel markets for first-drive parlays, bettors can scan halfway down the list and find both teams to score TDs on their opening drives at +1,500. At bet365, this same prop is +800, and considering both teams are +225ish to score a TD on their opening drive, this should be priced closer to +1,000.

It’s not just a prop that I think is +EV, it’s also one where I like the individual legs hitting.

In the AFC Championship Game, the Kansas City Chiefs were priced at +285 to score a TD on the opening drive and did so thanks to a back-shoulder Travis Kelce reception. It was the fifth opening-drive TD for the Chiefs this year on 20 attempts, but this offense has been a different beast in the postseason.

Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes opened the playoffs with a first-drive TD vs. the Dolphins, settled for a field goal vs. the Bills, and scored against a tough Baltimore defense. Over their last 11 playoff games, the Chiefs offense has scored in each game’s opening drive, including a whopping six TDs. I love the Chiefs to score any point on their opening drive at +135.

The San Francisco 49ers defense is not as stout as bettors are led to believe and have allowed an opening drive field goal and TD so far in the playoffs. Detroit needed just four plays for six points in the NFC Championship game. On the year, San Fransico’s defense has allowed a score on 10 of 19 first drives (five TDs and five field goals).

Looking at the other offense, the 49ers have better odds to score on the opening drive than the Chiefs, with a TD priced at +225 and any points at +125.

The 49ers were priced as short as +150 to score a 1D TD vs. the Lions and have one of the best opening-drive offenses in football with a 53% TD rate on the season. They’ve scored a TD or attempted a FG in 68% of their first drives on the season.

Both coaches have had two weeks to draw up an elite opening-drive script, which further helps matters. The indoor setting is also in the favor of the offenses while each club will be at full health with its playmakers.

If I couldn't get this +1,500 prop, I’d be pleased with single betting both offenses to score on their opening drives at +125 or better. However, thanks to elite game-planning coaches and two of the best offenses at scoring on drive No.1, getting both teams to score a TD on the opening drive at +1,500 is tough to pass up.
 
It’s a bet that can pad the account but also has some great sweat potential and could cause early excitement at your Super Bowl party.

My best bet: Both teams to score touchdowns on their opening drives — Yes (+1,500 at FanDuel)

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