The Philadelphia Eagles will look to stop another three-peat in Super Bowl LIX as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs look to win their fourth title and third consecutive one Sunday, February 9 at the Caesars Superdome.
The Chiefs' offense is showing its true capabilities now that games mean something but my Chiefs vs. Eagles predictions believe Philly will exact some revenge and lift the Lombardi Trophy.
Find out more in my NFL picks for Sunday, February 9.
Chiefs vs Eagles predictions
Chiefs vs Eagles spread
Eagles +1.5 (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
I was hoping this number was going to move to 2 with all the Kansas City Chiefs love but 1.5 looks like it could be here to stay unless something influential moves it from now until Sunday. The step up for the Chiefs here is legit. It's the best offense they've seen in the playoffs and the best defense. Andy Reid with extra time to prep is worrisome, but there are some paths to this cover where the Philadelphia Eagles dominate the time of possession and take away the Chiefs' two best people, Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
The Bills decided too late to lean on the run vs. the Chiefs but when they did, they moved the ball much easier. Even vs. Houston, the Texans moved the ball completing 10 of 17 third downs and dominating the TOP.
Philadelphia doesn't want this to be a one-score game because that's a huge edge to the Chiefs, but this roster can put up a late double-digit lead with an offense that has weapons everywhere and an elite defense that can get after Mahomes which we've seen is the best way to beat him in big games.
Chiefs vs Eagles Over/Under
Over 49 (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
Two-way scoring is almost guaranteed in the Superdome. Jalen Hurts will be as healthy as he has been in a while, the O-line is going to take advantage of the extra rest, the passing game is back on track, and the Chiefs' offense is not the same unit we saw during the regular season.
The indoor environment is also a major factor in this. having a roof over players' heads increases passing volume and efficiency. These are two offenses that play predominantly outdoors and with KC's high pass rate and Philadelphia's stacked offense, volume and big plays could be common things on Sunday. Both offenses can up and down the field quickly and can convert 3rd/4th downs or at the goal line.
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Chiefs vs Eagles prop bet
A.J. Brown Over 70.5 receiving yards (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
I've got some Xavier Worthy Over rushing, some Patrick Mahomes Over pass attempts, and some Jalen Hurts Over rushing props already in the account, but despite getting to this prop a little late, there is a lot to like about A.J. Brown getting Over 70 yards.
He came to life last week putting up a six-catch, one-score, 96-yard game on eight targets which was the same line he dropped on the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII. Jalen Hurts will be at his healthiest in two months with the extra rest and the passing game had life vs. the Commanders.
This is an alpha receiver who had 26 targets across Weeks 15 and 16 before his QB was concussed. Brown can get this done even in a low-volume game and if the Eagles are in comeback mode, 100 yards is more likely than Under 70.
This was a receiver who just a season ago put up 125+ yards in six straight games and gets to face a defense that is going to sell out to stop Saquon Barkley and the run. His longest reception market of 24.5 yards is 34% of this entire receiving total.
Brown projects for 85 yards and this market is on the rise and will be until game time. The indoor setting is going to help, but it might not be fully priced. From Weeks 12 to 17, Brown's receiving total closed at 88.5, 89.5, 76.5, 79.5, 74.5, and 72.5 (no Hurts). I'd buy this prop to 77.5/78.5 and wouldn't be surprised if it closed at 79.5.
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Chiefs vs Eagles live odds
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