If you’re holding a longstanding Super Bowl futures ticket on the Cincinnati Bengals, good on you, and can I “Burrow” the time machine?
Cincinnati was a massive underdog to not only win the AFC Championship (+10,000) but even make the playoffs, with the Yes/No postseason prop pegging the Bengals to be playoff-bound at +400 before the season started.
Yet, here we are. Cincinnati is still an underdog, taking on the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI on February 13, but a live dog at +170 odds. That’s about a 37% chance of winning the Lombardi Trophy, which looks a lot nicer than the 0.50% shot oddsmakers gave the Bengals back in the summer.
We run down the Bengals’ Super Bowl odds during their long and winding road to SoFi Stadium for Super Bowl LVI.
Cincinnati Bengals Super Bowl odds season recap
Implied probability to win the Super Bowl 2021-2022
Part I - humble beginnings
Opening Super Bowl LVI odds: +8,000 to +10,000
After a 4-11-1 record in 2020 and with quarterback Joe Burrow’s health up in the air following a season-ending knee injury in his rookie campaign, bookmakers didn’t have high hopes for Cincinnati when Super Bowl LVI futures were released in late January. The team was between 80/1 and 100/1 alongside the Lions, Texans and Jets and just ahead of the Jaguars. The Bengals were expected to finish at the bottom of a packed AFC North, which had Baltimore (12/1), Pittsburgh (25/1), and Cleveland (30/1) high up on the futures board.
Post draft: +10,000
The Bengals draft class was headlined by the selection of LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase at No. 5 overall, giving Burrow his top target from the Tigers’ national championship team in 2019-20. The decision to take Chase in the first round was blasted by critics, who believed Cincinnati should have used the pick on pass protection. Another selection that saw Cincy under fire was Florida kicker Evan McPherson in Round 5. The Bengals’ Big Game odds remained unchanged following the 2021 NFL Draft.
Preseason: +15,000 to +20,000
With AFC darlings like the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens drawing action on their Super Bowl odds and the rival Browns as everyone’s sexy pick to win it all, the Bengals’ Super Bowl price ballooned in late summer and into the preseason. The team went 1-2 in exhibition play and Chase looked way out of his depth, plagued with bad drops and drawing criticism for his place in the draft, as well as taking the 2020 college season off during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Week 1 to Week 6: +15,000 to +20,000
The Bengals faced a daunting schedule to open the 2021 NFL season, playing five of their first eight games on the road. Cincinnati started the year with a wild overtime win against Minnesota in Week 1 and turned heads with a tough 24-10 victory at Pittsburgh in Week 3. This span also included an overtime loss to Green Bay at home in Week 5 before a blowout win at Detroit in Week 6, which made the team 4-2 to start the season and gained the respect of books and bettors.
Part II - rising stock
Week 7: +8,000
The Bengals’ Big Game futures didn’t really shift until after Week 6, with bookmakers pretty much cutting their price in half to +8,000 ahead of an AFC North showdown at Baltimore. Cincinnati closed as a 6.5-point road underdog and blasted Baltimore 41-17 after outscoring the Ravens 28-7 in the second half. Burrow passed for 416 yards – 201 of those gains going to Chase, who was proving doubters wrong with a strong case for Offensive Rookie of the Year in his first seven games as a pro. Cincinnati was now 5-2 and tied with Baltimore atop the division.
Week 8 to Week 9: +3,000 to +4,000
What goes up, must… lose to the Jets in Week 8. In one of the most obvious situational spots of the 2021 schedule, the Bengals were bound for regression and ripe for a letdown after smashing the Ravens the week prior and playing their third straight road game in East Rutherford. That loss compounded itself into an ugly defeat at home to Cleveland in Week 9, forcing books to temper Cincinnati’s Super Bowl odds after such a sharp market correction two weeks prior.
Week 10 to Week 15: +6,600 to +5,000
The Bengals’ futures climbed to 66/1 after back-to-back losses and a bye in Week 10. However, that break came at the right time and Cincinnati snapped a midseason funk with a big win at Las Vegas in Week 11. From there, the schedule was working with the Bengals who would play five of their final seven games inside Paul Brown Stadium. They beat Pittsburgh again in Week 12 but lost to the Chargers and 49ers (OT) before heading to Denver for a hard-fought 15-10 victory in Week 15. At 8-6, Cincy was once again tied with the Ravens for first in the AFC North and would have a huge showdown versus Baltimore at home in Week 16.
Part III - finishing strong
Week 16: +4,000
A battle for the AFC North between the Bengals and Ravens took a turn when Baltimore not only lost starting QB Lamar Jackson to an ankle injury, but backup Tyler Huntley was ruled out due to COVID. Veteran Josh Johnson stood in under center for the shorthanded Ravens, who would get shredded 41-21 by Cincinnati. That win gave Cincy the inside track in the division and a shot at the No. 4 seed in the AFC.
Week 17: +2,500
NFL bettors would get to see if the Bengals were for real when they welcomed the gatekeepers of the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs, in Week 17. And for 30 minutes of football, it looked like the Bengals were in over their heads. However, a 17-3 second-half surge gave Cincinnati a 34-31 win – thanks to a game-winning field goal from McPherson – and the Bengals clinched the AFC North title and their first postseason appearance since 2015.
Week 18: +2,000
With their ticket to the tournament already punched, Cincinnati would sit its starters and use the final week of the regular season to rest up. The Bengals laid down for the Browns, who won 21-16 as 6.5-point home favorites on January 9. Cincinnati would finish the regular season at 10-7, blowing its season win total of 6.5 out of the water and cashing in as +3,000 long shots to win the AFC North.
Part IV - road to Super Bowl 56
Wild Card: +2,000
As the No. 4 seed in the AFC bracket, the Bengals drew a home game against the Raiders, who had snuck into the playoffs in a thrilling Sunday Night Football finale in Week 18. Cincinnati jumped out to a 20-6 lead in the second quarter and was able to hold off a second-half push from Vegas, forcing the Raiders to settle for FGs instead of TDs in a 26-19 win. Now, the Bengals would hit the road for a date with the No. 1 seed.
Divisional Round: +1,400
Despite the win over Las Vegas in the Wild Card Round, the Bengals’ Super Bowl odds didn’t drop far. Cincinnati was headed to Tennessee to play the top-seed Titans, who would return star RB Derrick Henry from injury for the Divisional Round. The Titans rushing attack did its damage, but it was three back-breaking interceptions from QB Ryan Tannehill that left the Tennessee offense to collapse in on itself. Cincy settled for four field goals from McPherson, including another game-winner as time expired, to take an ugly 19-16 win and a spot in the AFC title game.
AFC Championship: +800
Cincinnati would face the Chiefs again, but this time in Arrowhead Stadium after Kansas City scored a thrilling OT win over Buffalo in the Divisional Round. This return meeting would play out eerily similar to the Week 17 matchup between the Bengals and Chiefs, with K.C. jumping out to a big lead early (21-3) and Cincy storming back with a 21-3 second half.
This one would go to an extra frame, with Patrick Mahomes getting the ball first in overtime: a sure kill shot for the Cinderella Bengals after watching the Chiefs put away the Bills in OT the week prior. However, Cincinnati would pick off Mahomes and rumble down the field for another game-winning FG off the foot of McPherson, sending the Bengals back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1988-89.
Super Bowl LVI: +170
Here we are at the end of a crazy campaign for the Cincinnati Bengals. Unlike the Los Angeles Rams, who hovered near the top of the Super Bowl futures all season (opened 20/1 in January, moved to 12/1 after trading for Matthew Stafford in February, and never fell further than that), the Bengals have the sentimental backing in the Super Bowl as a Cinderella team. Depending on where you bet, Cincinnati opened at the bottom of the SBLVI odds alongside three other teams at 100/1 (Detroit, Houston, N.Y. Jets), and should the Bengals pull this off, it will be one of the greatest “Worst to First” stories in sports history.
Cincinnati Bengals 2022 Super Bowl odds FAQs
Cincinnati is currently priced between +150 and +180 on the moneyline for Super Bowl 56.
Cincinnati was between +15,000 and +20,000 to win the Super Bowl in the preseason.
Yes, Cincinnati is between a 4- and 4.5-point underdog in Super Bowl 56.
