Five Super Bowl Betting Markets to Bet Early: Attack the Total

The Super Bowl is the biggest sports betting event in North America and turning a profit isn't just about what you bet but when you bet it. Super Bowl odds represent a huge opportunity for savvy bettors because of how much the public can sway lines.

That creates value in either going against the line movement closer to kickoff or getting ahead of that line movement by locking in your NFL picks earlier in the week.

Here are the five best NFL odds markets to bet early in the week before Super Bowl 58 between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.

Five best Super Bowl markets to bet early

Over 47.5 (-110)

It's no surprise that the public loves betting Overs. Add in an explosive San Francisco attack that averages 28.9 points per game and a Kansas City Chiefs offense led by two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes and Taylor Swift's boyfriend Travis Kelce and it's easy to see why money would come in on the Over for Super Bowl 58. Not to mention, that even the savviest bettors know that rooting for an Over to hit is a lot more fun than the Under.

The Over is currently bringing in 66 percent of the bets and 65 percent of the handle at DraftKings. Despite those numbers, the total has stayed steady at the opening number of 47.5. However, last year the O/U opened at 48.5 and surged up to 51.5 before kickoff. If you do like the Over now is the time to bet it since it's only going to climb higher.

That said, I'm personally leaning towards the Under since the Chiefs are second in the league with just 17.3 ppg allowed and the 49ers are right behind them with 17.5 ppg. However, the same logic applies. If you like this game to go below the total wait until closer to kickoff when you can bet the Under at a higher number.

Patrick Mahomes Over 261.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Patrick Mahomes is arguably the best player in the NFL and we're seeing more and more publications tout him as being on pace to become the greatest player in NFL history. Is that hyperbole? Absolutely but it also means that public money will likely flood towards Mahomes when it comes to the Over on his passing yards.

I'm surprised that his passing yards total hasn't already seen an uptick since hitting the board last week but I expect it to climb as we get closer to Super Bowl Sunday. Keep in mind that the Over 260.5 passing yards for Mahomes at BetMGM has seen 68% of the tickets and 76% of the handle.

This number might seem too high when you consider that it's easily the highest O/U for Mahomes since he faced Cincinnati in Week 17 and the 49ers are far better against the pass than the Bengals.

However, he'll benefit from playing indoors at the Super Bowl and game script could also dictate a passing-heavy gameplan from the Chiefs if Mahomes has to play from behind.

First touchdown scorer Christian McCaffrey (+400 at 888sport)

The first touchdown scorer prop is often one of the most highly bet markets in any NFL game and it becomes even more popular for the Super Bowl. Expect money to pour in on 49ers All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey even though he has the shortest odds. After all, even with the lowest payout, +400 is nothing to sneeze at. 

McCaffrey tied for the league lead with 21 touchdowns during the regular season and has added four more scores in two playoff games. With the 49ers favored in this game, there's a solid chance they get on the board first, and with the Chiefs struggling to defend running backs, it's easy to see that the public will be backing McCaffrey on this prop.

McCaffrey can still be bet on for as high as +400 although that number has already shortened to as low as +300 at some books. Bet McCaffrey to score the first touchdown at anything above +350.

Travis Kelce Over 70.5 receiving yards (-125 at BetMGM)

With 984 receiving yards in 15 games, Kelce is coming off his worst regular season since way back in 2015 and had Alex Smith throwing him the ball. However, his receiving yards O/U opened at just 69.5 which was too low considering how consistent he has been in the playoffs. That O/U has quickly been bet up to 70.5 or 71.5 and it's still worth taking the Over at those numbers. 

Kelce is coming off an 11-catch, 116-yard performance against the Ravens in the AFC Championship game and he has now racked up at least 71 receiving yards in every playoff contest he has played in over the last four seasons — a whopping 12 games. Sure rookie Rashee Rice has developed into a stud at wideout but Kelce was Mahomes' most reliable target even when Tyreek Hill was on the team. When the chips are down, Mahomes will definitely be targeting Kelce, especially against a San Francisco defense that ranks near the middle of the league when it comes to defending tight ends. 

Bet the Over on Kelce's receiving yards now before it soars to a much higher number, especially with the rise in his popularity...let's just say across demographics. A longshot bet that is worth considering now would be Kelce's Super Bowl MVP odds which are +1,700 at FanDuel. Keep in mind that bet365 has Mahomes to win MVP at +125 which is barely worth more than the Chiefs on the moneyline at +110. While Mahomes will likely win the MVP award if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, there's certainly a chance that Kelce wins it and +1,700 is fantastic value. With Chiefs bettors looking for an MVP bet that pays better than Mahomes paltry +125 expect money to come in on Kelce and his odds to shorten in the next few days.

Special Team or Defensive Touchdown Scored (Yes +215/No -280 at Bet365)

This is another bet that the public loves, in part because of the high payout on the "Yes" and also because of the perception that these game-breaking plays happen more often than they actually do. A defensive or special teams touchdown was scored an incredible eight times between 2007 and 2017. Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton also returned a 36-yard fumble to the house last year.

However, no defensive or special teams TDs were scored between 2018 and 2022 and a larger sample size shows just how rarely they happen in the modern NFL. Neither team has scored a single special teams touchdown this season while the Chiefs have scored just a pair of defensive touchdowns and the 49ers only one. When you also factor in how rarely they've surrendered non-offensive touchdowns (San Francisco allowing one and the Chiefs with three), it becomes clear that the "No" is the right side.

Instead of betting this now, I'd advise until waiting later in the week and taking the "No" even with heavy chalk to swallow. Wait until the public bets the "Yes" all week and then swoop in and grab the "No" on Sunday. 

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