When the Kansas City Chiefs are involved, thrilling comebacks are just as prominent on Super Bowl Sunday as chips and dip.
The Chiefs’ three previous Super Bowl wins — LVIII, LVII, and LIV — all featured second-half rallies. That gave anyone live betting the Super Bowl odds a chance to bet Kansas City as an in-game underdog on the live moneyline before those turnarounds.
Live betting has blossomed over the past decade, and while we can’t predict the cadence of Super Bowl LIX (as much as we try), we can circle some scenarios for the Philadelphia Eagles and Chiefs on Sunday, February 9, and the best in-game markets to wager on should the game go that way.
Here are some tips and tactics for your Super Bowl predictions and Super Bowl props with a focus on navigating live odds.
Scenario: Slow start after first quarter
Best live bets
- Skill player Unders
Don’t be surprised if we see few fireworks before Kendrick Lamar starts setting up. Both the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles can play a plodding pace and often we find Super Bowl offenses a little tight in the opening quarter due to nerves and two weeks off.
The opening frame could be a bit like the first few rounds of a boxing bout, with the offenses throwing jabs to see where any weak spots may be. If we get a low-scoring first quarter, don’t panic and blindly hammer Unders. Super Bowls can bust open like a pinata in the second quarter.
We have two very savvy defensive coordinators on each sideline in Steven Spagnolo and Vic Fangio. Both thrive on confusion, with Spags taking the “chaos” approach, bringing pressure from everywhere, while Fangio has more of a “sleight of hand” scheme, disguising its looks.
If neither team can crack the defense, see which plays are coming up short and bet accordingly. If the Chiefs aren’t letting Saquon Barkley pick up speed, consider the Under in his live player props. If Patrick Mahomes can’t connect on crucial third-down throws, it might be time to fade his Big Game production.
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Scenario: Chiefs start hot
Best live bets
- Over on Hunt/Pacheco rush attempts
- Under live total
- Under on Mahomes passing yards
- Defensive Player Sacks props
- Over on Hurts passing attempts
Should Kansas City hold the advantage in the final 30 minutes, this team is more than happy to muddy up the game and suck every second off the clock before snapping the ball.
The Chiefs already run one of the more methodical paces in the NFL and should they be protecting a lead late in Super Bowl LIX, we’ll see plenty of handoffs and short connections to keep the chain moving and milk the clock.
Not only does KC have a two-head monster in Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco but Mahomes is one of the most effective passers on third down, which gives Kansas City the second-highest success rate per snap on third/fourth down.
If the Chiefs are playing keep-away, that means Philadelphia has to make the most of their limited possessions — and quick. The Eagles will have to pull away from a run-centric attack and lean on Jalen Hurts and the passing game.
That makes Philly’s playbook more one-dimensional and opens the floodgates for the Chiefs blitz-heavy pass rush to tee off. Hurts has been horrible under pressure this season and Steve Spagnuolo will come at the Eagles QB from all angles.
Scenario: Eagles soar early
Best live bets
- Over Barkley/Hurts carries
- Under Hurts pass attempts
- Under game total
Much like Kansas City, the Eagles are more than happy grinding out gains on the ground. And should they be playing with a second-half lead, expect nothing but handoffs. The last thing Philadelphia wants is to give the ball to Mahomes late in the game.
The Chiefs defense does have a soft spot against the run, with this stop unit giving up a success rate of 48.2% per opponent handoff in the postseason.
Kansas City just allowed the Bills and Texans to rumble for almost 300 collective yards in its two playoff outings.
The Eagles are extremely good in short-yardage situations, thanks to the "Tush Push," so Philly can go on extended drives that eat the better part of the quarter.
Scenario: Kansas City trails close and late
Best live bets
- Chiefs moneyline
The Chiefs have come from behind in the second half in each of their previous three Super Bowl wins. Mahomes has made a career out of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat and bringing live bettors along for the ride.
Books know this and won’t give you a great price on a KC comeback, at least compared to any other NFL team, so shop around and make sure you’re getting plus-money.
Scenario: Philadelphia trails close and late
Best live bets
- Over Hurts completions
- Over Smith receiving yards
- Smith Touchdown Anytime
If the Eagles are playing from behind, that means they’re passing into the teeth of Spagnuolo’s schemes. Expect Kansas City to pull out all the stops, much as they did against poor Josh Allen and the Bills.
That said, Philly has the No. 2 EPA per play rating in fourth quarters/overtime and is the top-scoring team in the final frame, averaging 9.3 points per 4Q.
Hurts is a top-rated QB in those late-game scenarios as well, sitting No. 1 in CPOE and No. 2 in EPA per dropback.
When it comes to his favorite targets, bettors could find good live betting value with WR Devonta Smith. He’s been the best in crunch time, with a team-high 12 receptions for 179 yards and two touchdowns in games decided by seven points in the fourth quarter.
How to live bet the Super Bowl
Just like the Boss sang, you can’t start a fire without a spark. If you want to learn how to live bet the Big Game, make sure you have an out that allows that. Depending on where you call home or where you’re watching the Super Bowl, online sports betting may or may not be available (select casinos will take live bets at the counter for special events).
For those lucky enough to have the option, shop around a bit before depositing into a sportsbook and make sure they have the in-game odds you want to bet. Most books will allow visitors to view the available markets without signing up, so browse around between now and kickoff (I wouldn’t wait that long) and see which operators tickle your in-running fancy.
With in-game odds now at your fingertips, how are you going to live bet the heaviest wagered-on single event of the year in North America? We don’t have a crystal ball, so the outcome of Super Bowl LVIII is very much unknown, but we do have some pointers for betting football in-running odds specifically.
Look at the key numbers
Key numbers are important when capping pregame odds and are equally as important when betting in-running odds. Due to the scoring system in football, NFL games are more often decided by the same margin of points: three, six, seven, and 10. Betting on and around those key numbers can be the difference, especially when it comes to the Super Bowl—the most scrutinized and drum-tight line of the entire season.
The current Super Bowl spread has the 49ers laying 2.5 points as favorites. But, should Kansas City open the scoring with a touchdown, the live spread may swing close to a field goal in favor of the Chiefs. Should Kansas City add another TD to open a 14-0 lead, you may see San Francisco listed at +9.5, +10, or even +10.5, depending on game flow and the clock.
Most books will offer up multiple alternate in-game spreads and totals too, not just serving up one live line, so you can shop a little bit and lay the extra vig (cost of making the bet) to get a better spread around a key number that fits your opinion.
Plus money can be a negative
An important thing to keep in mind when sorting through the tempting Super Bowl live markets: Don’t fall in love with plus money. Oftentimes, in-game bettors hunt only for plus-money offerings (bets that return more than your original wager) and ignore what could be great value on a line that you have to lay a little lumber to get. Don’t forget that little “+” is there for a reason.
Slow starts = Over/Under betting value
Before we send you off into the in-game wagering wilderness, I do have one live betting tidbit to share for the Big Game. Despite last year's Super Bowl between the Chiefs and Eagles seeing 14 points in the first quarter, opening frames have been somewhat uneventful historically.
Before last year's Super Bowl included 14 points, but the first 15 minutes saw just 70 total points over the 10 Big Games prior, which is an average of just one TD per first quarter in that span. Chalk it up to nerves and skill players being a little tight or the defenses just being amped up to hit someone after a two-week break — whatever the cause, it’s been slow going in Super Bowl first quarters.
Given that piece of info, keep an eye on the in-game Over/Under. If the Chiefs and 49ers come out slow like some previous Big Game contenders, there could be value in playing the Over on the adjusted live total (the early Super Bowl total is at 47.5 points.
Live betting Super Bowl player props
If you like betting Super Bowl props, make sure your operator of choice offers live markets around player performance. Examples of live player props odds you can live bet on include passing props, touchdown props, receiving props, and rushing props.
How to bet on the Super Bowl
The Super Bowl's popularity is always bringing in new sports bettors. Before you start betting on the Big Game, brush up on how to bet the Super Bowl with our extensive guide.
Where can you live bet the Super Bowl?
Almost all regulated sportsbooks offer live betting options for the Super Bowl. This includes live markets for moneylines, spreads, Over/Unders and props. If you're looking to make some in-game wagers on Super Bowl 58, make sure you're signed up at the best Super Bowl betting sites.
