Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt has catapulted himself into the go-to role out of the backfield leading into Super Bowl 59 against the Philadelphia Eagles at the Caesars Superdome on Sunday. February 9.
Philadelphia has paved its way to New Orleans with an elite run defense, and my top NFL picks for the Kareem Hunt odds expect the KC running back to have a tough time piling up yardage tonight.
Kareem Hunt player prop picks
- Best bet
Under 48.5 rushing + receiving yards
(-105 at Caesars) - SGP pick
Under 48.5 rushing + receiving yards
Anytime touchdown
Under 48.5
(+850 at Caesars)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Kareem Hunt O/U 48.5 rushing + receiving yards
My best bet
Under 48.5 rushing + receiving yards (-105 at Caesars)
My analysis
The Philadelphia Eagles stop the run.
They finished the regular season ranked second in PFF run defense while allowing the second-lowest EPA per rush, and the Eagles also surrendered the fourth-lowest yards per carry to opposing running backs.
So, I’m not anticipating the Kansas City Chiefs having consistent success on the ground against the Eagles in Super Bowl 59. Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt has also failed to gain this many yards from scrimmage in four of his past seven games.
With the ground game likely stalling, I’m expecting KC QB Patrick Mahomes to attack through the air with short and intermediate passes because Hunt and backfield mate Isiah Pacheco are going to have a tough time picking up chunk yardage.
Of course, KC running back Samaje Perine will also mix in as a pass-protection and pass-catching specialist, and I’m not convinced Pacheco won’t see an uptick in touches and targets following the two-week layoff.
There’s also a scenario where Pacheco outperforms Hunt, and Chiefs head coach Andy Reid opts to turn to the hot hand. The Under has more outs, and that's the side I'm on.
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Kareem Hunt same-game parlay
Kareem Hunt Under 48.5 rushing + receiving yards
Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown
Under 48.5
Hunt has found the end zone in each of his past four games while receiving nine red-zone carries, including three from inside the five-yard line. As discussed, while there's potential for Pacheco to be busier, Hunt has been the go-to option out of the backfield in scoring territory.
Pacheco hasn’t found paydirt since Week 1, and he’s only handled three red-zone carries during the highlighted four-game stretch.
Parlaying a Hunt anytime touchdown with the Under is a nice multiplier, and the Big Game going Under the number is definitely in the wheelhouse.
I’m expecting multiple long, clock-churning drives finishing in field goal attempts instead of touchdowns because the Eagles and Chiefs, respectively, allowed red-zone trips to result in touchdowns at the sixth- and eighth-lowest rate during the regular season.
Additionally, KC averaged a league-high 6.7 plays lasting 3:08 per drive during the regular season, while Philadelphia ranked sixth (6.3) and fifth (3:01). Pair two of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL with two head coaches hoping to keep their offenses on the field as much as possible, and Over bettors are going to be begging for points late.
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