The sun has risen on Super Sunday.
With the Super Bowl 59 6:30 p.m. ET start drawing near, the biggest game in North American sports betting looks like it might be too close to call — if the Super Bowl odds are correct.
That tight spread has plenty of football bettors passing on the point spread and jumping into the moneyline odds, especially when it comes to Philadelphia winning outright as the underdog. Philly has drawn the majority of the ticket count and handle in the moneyline markets.
At Caesars Sportsbook, the Eagles are currently +100 to win Super Bowl LIX and listed at +1 (-110), with the moneyline price a nickel cheaper than that 1-point pad. Kansas City comes back at -120 to win and -1 (-110), with the vig on the handicap a touch lower.
Live 2025 Super Bowl odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Live odds below update every five minutes.
Super Bowl Point spread betting splits
It seems most sportsbooks operators are singing from the same songbook on Super Bowl Sunday. While there’s no shortage of support for Philadelphia on both the spread and moneyline, operators would love to see an Eagles victory knock out any liability on Kansas City in the Super Bowl futures book.
“There’s plenty of two-way action as we approach kickoff,” Craig Mucklow, Vice President of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook, says. “From a liability perspective, Caesars will need the Eagles as of now.”
- Fanatics Sportsbook: 57% tickets on Chiefs, 56% handle on Eagles
- BetMGM: 52% tickets on Eagles, 64% handle on Eagles
- DraftKings: 52% tickets on Chiefs, 58% of handle on Eagles
- bet365: 51% tickets on Eagles, 60% handle on Eagles
- Caesars Sportsbook: 54% tickets on Eagles, 54% handle on Eagles
Super Bowl Over/Under betting splits
It’s no surprise to see the Over drawing overwhelming support from Super Bowl bettors. With many casual and first-time bettors hoping for a high-scoring game, those predictions help pump up the splits on the Over.
“One market where the action in the U.S. and abroad is a large majority, is the Over 48.5,” says Aron Wattleworth, trading leader for bet365. “The Under 48.5 players, in general, are North American based, with Canada, Mexico and the U.S. accounting for the majority of the Under action.”
- Fanatics Sportsbook: 74% tickets on Over, 77% handle on Over
- BetMGM: 62% tickets on Over, 54% handle on Over
- DraftKings: 72% tickets on Over, 73% handle on Over
- bet365: 81% tickets on Over, 79% handle on Over
- Caesars Sportsbook: 74% tickets on Over, 74% handle on Over
Slim faves almost always cover when they win the Big Game
Given those current odds and historic betting results for spreads this small, Philadelphia Eagles fans searching for the best return should feel secure in attacking the moneyline while Kansas City Chiefs backers wanting more bang for their buck can lay the slim spread with little worry of a 1-point finish.
Looking back in the NFL betting history books, there have been a mere 11 instances in 592 total games since 1985 in which a 1-point favorite won by one point and pushed with the closing spread of -1. That’s just a 1.85% occurrence.
Even rarer are situations in which a team favored by -1.5 won but fell short of covering the spread by the half-point hook. Since 1985, there have been 317 games close with a 1.5-point spread, and only four of those favorites won outright but missed ATS by that half a point (1.26%).
At this point in the Super Bowl LIX betting process, the odds board has been sanded down by two weeks of action and opinion. Any edges or advantages dried up quickly, and the Big Game point spread is perhaps the most efficient market in sports.
So, if you’ve waited this long to get down on the Chiefs or Eagles, you can squeeze what little value is left by being strategic about which odds you wager on.
If you like Philadelphia, play Eagles ML -105. If you’re convinced Kansas City wins, lay the slim spread at -1 (-105) with a very small risk of a 1-point margin when the confetti flies in New Orleans.
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