We're just days away from kicking off Super Bowl 57 between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
There has been no shortage of people dissecting Super Bowl odds and giving predictions about every possible Super Bowl player prop, but it's now time for the most important Super Bowl picks of all — the official plays from the Covers staff!
We've polled our in-house NFL betting minds for their favorite play for the Big Game: Find out below what direction our crew is going on Sunday.
Super Bowl 57 odds
Super Bowl 57 picks
| Writer | Pick |
|---|---|
 Jason Logan |
 Kansas City Chiefs -2 |
 Andrew Caley |
Patrick Mahomes Over 38.5 pass attempts |
 Josh Inglis |
Isiah Pacheco Over 13.5 receiving yards |
 Rohit Ponnaiya |
Kansas City and  Philadelphia both to score 20+ points |
 Brandon DuBreuil |
Patrick Mahomes Over 19.5 rush yards |
 Jared Hochman |
Travis Kelce Over 9.5 targets |
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Covers staff Super Bowl picks
Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst (@CoversJLo)
When it comes to getting the best of the number, I strongly feel Kansas City Chiefs +2 is a great spread bet right now.
Not only is the market trending back toward Kansas City (some books have flirted as low as KC +1), but we’re getting Mahomes & Co. as underdogs on the other side of the key number of one, which is why I’m taking the points instead of grabbing Kansas City on the moneyline outright.
If you can’t get the +2, the +1.5 is also good, as this could very much be a one-point game for either team.
Pick: Chiefs +2 (-112 at WynnBET)
Read Jason's full analysis in his Chiefs vs. Eagles betting preview
Andrew Caley, Senior Betting Analyst (@Covers_Caley)
Patrick Mahomes is averaging a touch under 38 pass attempts per game in 2022-23, with the Over hitting on 38.5 pass attempts nine times, including when he tossed the ball 43 times during the AFC Championship Game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Plus, we now have the overarching theme of the game: Kansas City head coach Andy Reid knows his best shot at winning his second Super Bowl title is relying on the arm of his All-World quarterback. And Reid has proven he's comfortable doing that.
Mahomes is averaging 39.3 pass attempts over his last nine playoff games. He’s gone Over 38.5 throws in five of his previous six playoff appearances. And he’s attempted 42 and 49 pass attempts in his last two Super Bowls.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 38.5 pass attempts (-110 at BetMGM)
Read Andrew's full analysis in his Patrick Mahomes picks and predictions article.
Josh Inglis, Betting Analyst (@Covers_josh)
Isiah Pacheco is taking over the Kansas City backfield. He’s playing on both rushing and passing downs and set a season-high in snap share vs. the Bengals at 57%. He’s outcarried Jerick McKinnon 22 to 15 in the playoffs, and took control of the rush attack with 10 carries to McKinnon’s four vs. Cincinnati — while also expanding his role in the passing game.
The pass-catching role had been McKinnon’s since the bye, as the now-No. 2 back had averaged 5.5 targets per game from Weeks 9 to 18. Now we’re starting to see some more trust with Pacheco in the passing game, as he had a season-high six targets, five catches, and 59 receiving yards vs. the Bengals and we could see a similar role vs. the Eagles.
Pacheco played a season-high 29 passing downs in the AFC Championship Game, which was 12 more snaps than his previous high. He did enough damage with his five grabs, which should get him more work as a dual-threat running back. McKinnon has failed to do much with his postseason touches, averaging just 2.3 yards per touch on 19 total touches while dealing with an ankle injury.
Pick: Isiah Pacheco Over 13.5 receiving yards (-115 at PointsBet)
Read Josh's full analysis in his Isiah Pacheco picks and predictions article.
Rohit Ponnaiya, Betting Analyst (@Covers_Ro)
The Philadelphia Eagles offense doesn't seem to have any weaknesses. Their ground game led the NFL in rush EPA/play and DVOA, while their aerial attack features a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Both areas benefit from an offensive line that might be the best in the league.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, haven't scored fewer than 20 points in a game since Week 3. They are better known for a passing attack that ranks first in the league in every analytic, their ground game (10th in the league in Rush EPA) is more than good enough to gash a Philly D that ranks 23st in Rush EPA and surrenders 4.6 yards per carry.
Considering how explosive and consistent both offenses are, it seems almost a lock that both will hit the 20-point plateau. With such a high likelihood of this happening, I'd be willing to play this wager up to -160.
Pick: Both teams to score 20 points (-140 at bet365)
Read Rohit's full analysis in his Chiefs and Eagles scoring prop prediction.
Brandon DuBreuil, Head of Content (@CoversBDB)
Mahomes comes into the game without an injury designation on the ankle. Is he 100%? Probably not.
But well enough run for 20 yards in the biggest game of the year?
I'm betting on it.
Looking back at past Super Bowls, Mahomes ran for 33 yards on five attempts against Tampa Bay and 29 yards on nine attempts the year prior against San Francisco (and remember, that was after negative 15 yards worth of kneel downs). The Eagles have also given up some numbers to mobile QBs this season (95 yards to Justin Fields, 26 & 24 yards to Daniel Jones, 34 yards to Ryan Tannehill, just to name a few).
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 19.5 rush yards (+105 at DraftKings)
Jared Hochman, Senior Publishing Editor (@JLHoch)
Kelce has averaged 11.5 targets over his last eight playoff games, including 25 looks through two postseason matchups this season (while being a game-time decision in the AFC Championship), and drew almost a quarter of all the Chiefs’ passing targets in 2022.
With Patrick Mahomes needing to move the ball quickly against a relentless Eagles pash rush, he should be looking early and often towards his favorite receiver — and big No. 87 should easily surpass double-digit targets.
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 9.5 targets (-125 at Caesars)
