Josh Inglis and Derek Carty are back with NFL Prop Picks powered by The Blitz!
Discover their three best Super Bowl predictions as well as the five factors every bettor should consider before wagering on the Big Game.
Super Bowl predictions and prop picks
Patrick Mahomes Under 5.5 rushing attempts (+106 at BetRivers)
The line is over-adjusted due to recent playoff games and Mahomes' lower average in the regular season should be the focus.
Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 pass attempts (+110 at Caesars)
The Chiefs will be in a passing environment, and Blitz projections show he will pass more than that.
A.J. Brown Over 5.5 receptions (+135 at bet365)
The Blitz projections have A.J. Brown slated for 6.1 receptions and there's value to be found in the plus-money odds. While it's a close projection, you should make the bet as long as the odds are better than +116.
Check out our Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl predictions for even more analysis ahead of kickoff.
5 Things to consider before making your Super Bowl wagers
1. Look for value in an efficient market
The Super Bowl prop market is exceptionally efficient due to high volume and scrutiny. Despite this, value can be found through careful analysis and use of NFL prop projections.
2. Beware of over-adjustments in betting lines
Bookmakers often over-adjust lines based on recent performances, particularly in high-profile games like the Super Bowl. This leads to opportunities for bettors who can see past the recency bias.
Patrick Mahomes' rushing prop is a prime example. While he has exceeded 5.5 carries in recent playoff games, this is an overreaction. Mahomes' regular season average is much lower, especially when accounting for kneel-downs.
3. Consider game context
The context of the game is critical for projecting player performance. For instance, the fact that the Super Bowl is played in a dome, which generally favors passing, influences passing prop predictions.
Even though the Eagles want to run the ball, they will likely have to pass more in a Super Bowl game against the Chiefs.
4. High volume and efficiency seldom go together
Just because a team has a high pass rate doesn't mean they are not efficient. As Derek states "there's a difference between being pass heavy and losing constantly."
While Mahomes' passing attempt prop has value, it may not translate to his passing yardage.
5. The market moves fast
The market is dynamic, and betting lines are constantly moving due to public action. This can diminish the value of early bets. There is, however, the possibility of finding value on Unders as the public hammers Overs.
