The Cincinnati Bengals have become everyone’s favorite Super Bowl 56 underdog thanks to huge victories over the No. 1 seeded Titans and former Super Bowl odds favorite Chiefs.
However, there are plenty of underlying concerns for us with this offense and we have convinced ourselves that points will not be easy for Joe Burrow and the Bengals this Sunday. We dive into the value of fading Cincinnati's offense in our Super Bowl 56 prop picks.
Super Bowl 56 team total odds
| Over | Team | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 (-115) | Cincinnati Bengals | Under 21.5 (-115) |
| Over 26.5 (-120) | Los Angeles Rams | Under 26.5 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of February 10.
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Cincinnati Bengals team total pick
- Bengals team total Under 21.5 (-115)
Pick made on February 11, 2022.
The Bengals have come up with massive victories over some great postseason opponents but despite scoring 72 points across three games, this is an offense that has struggled to score in the red zone and has settled for field goals way too often.
Across their last three games, the Bengals have scored a touchdown on just four of their 11 red-zone trips. They’ve continually taken sacks and penalties inside the 40, as seven of Evan McPherson’s postseason field goals have come as a result of a penalty or a sack. Stalling inside the 20 is nothing new to Zac Taylor's team as Cincinnati finished 20th in red-zone scoring percentage during the regular season. Now, this offense will have to find a way to get six against a Rams defense that has allowed just five red-zone trips to its opponents so far in the playoffs.
Looking at another issue with this Cincy offense is on third downs. The Bengals sit outside the Top 10 in EPA/play and success rate on third downs this season while the Rams have the fourth-best third-down defense in football. The Bengals are 20 for 41 so far in the playoffs on third downs which is a good number but the longest third-down conversion they’ve made has been just seven yards.
Of the 21 third downs Burrow hasn’t converted, the average length has been 10.35 yards. If the Rams can get to Burrow and make them play behind the sticks, we aren't confident in the underdogs completing long third downs versus this defense. The Chiefs’ defense held this offense to just one TD on a drive longer than 30 yards.
Taylor’s conservative playcalling could also aid in keeping points off the board. His offense has gone for it just once on fourth down in the postseason while its 1.1 fourth-down attempts per game is the fourth-lowest rate in the league. With so much on the line, we’d bet against Taylor getting all Brandon Staley on us and continuing to send out the punting or kicking group.
All of these are more issues about the offense but let's not forget that they have to face a Rams team that allowed just 19.4 points per game at home this season and finished fourth in EPA/play against. They’ve played in the Big Game before and have an advantage versus a third-year coach and second-year quarterback.
While there are plenty on the Bengals bandwagon, we aren’t jumping aboard. This is an offense that struggles to score in the red zone and its offensive line issues could sink too many drives. Combine that with some likely early Super Bowl jitters and we’re happy to hit the Bengals’ team total Under 21.5 points.
