49ers vs Chiefs Super Bowl Quick Hitters: San Francisco Starts Fast

Attention spans are at an all-time low with our brains bouncing from one stimuli to the next. Even the sights and sounds of the Super Bowl can’t hold our focus for a full 60 minutes.

Hey… PAY ATTENTION!

If you find yourself drifting after the first quarter or just want to get your betting sweats out of the way, there are several Super Bowl predictions that will cash out before Usher sings a note.

Here are three quick and dirty NFL picks to take advantage of the latest Super Bowl odds.

And for more in-depth Super Bowl coverage, make sure to check out my full Chiefs vs. 49ers predictions!

49ers vs Chiefs Quick Hitters

Outcome of San Francisco's first drive

Kyle Shanahan is the Aaron Sorkin of opening drive scripts.

He’s put points up on close to 60% of the San Francisco 49ers first possessions this season, including 10 touchdowns on those 19 initial drives. That’s a big reason why the 49ers have played Over the first half total in 12 of their last 18 outings.

Now, the Super Bowl is a different beast and Big Game nerves can get the best of even the most efficient offenses, with guys a little tight and defenses dying to hit someone after two weeks off. Over the years, we’ve seen some bad drops and overthrown balls in the opening 15 minutes of the Big Game. 

In fact, last year’s Super Bowl was the first time in 15 years that the opening drive of the game resulted in a touchdown, with Jalen Hurts finding paydirt on a classic Philadelphia Eagles goal-line carry against the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Niners run into a stout Kansas City defense which has forced foes to punt on 60% of their opening drives this season. The Chiefs’ stop unit is best known for its second-half adjustments — leading to an NFL-low 6.8 points allowed in 2H — so Shanahan’s best-laid plans could crack Spags’ schemes early on.

San Francisco will likely involve all of its weapons on that first possession, testing the KC stop unit to see which skill players they’ll try to take away. There is a surplus of options for the 49ers, which should at least get them within field goal range on the opening drive.

Pick: San Francisco to score on the opening drive (+125 at bet365)

Chiefs first touchdown scorer

Maybe this market is a quick hitter and maybe not. Let’s hope Kansas City scores a touchdown before all the good commercials are spent.

At the top of the odds board, we find Travis Kelce at +225 to score KC’s first touchdown. That’s understandable considering Kelce’s the hot hand with three touchdowns in the past two games. Funny enough, though, his score against the Ravens in the AFC Championship was his first 1Q touchdown all year.

One of my first bets of Super Bowl LVIII was on Rashee Rice to score a TD anytime at +145, and this could be a spot to double down on the standout rookie.

He’s listed at +450 to score the Chiefs’ first touchdown and has recorded three of his eight total touchdowns in the opening 15 minutes, including a first-quarter TD in the Wild Card win over Miami.

The Niners’ main objective will be slowing down Kelce, which means plenty of extra attention from linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner in coverage. If the 49ers continue to roll out zone-heavy schemes, Kelce could be a decoy and clear out coverage for Rice to follow underneath.

He’s also been dangerous catching passes in the flat and on short shots to the outside, which is a weakness for San Francisco’s defense. Rice and Kelce are pretty much the only two receivers Patrick Mahomes trusts in the red zone, with Rice drawing one more RZ target than Kelce on the year.

Pick: Rashee Rice to score the Chiefs first touchdown (+450 at bet365)

Both teams to complete their first pass

The passing playbooks for the Niners and Chiefs are cut from a similar cloth. 

Both rely on shorter throws and yards after the catch, and we’ll see the early play-calling try to connect on an easy pass to help get these guys going out of the gate.

Shanahan eases Brock Purdy into the pool, which shows in his first-quarter splits. The Niners Cinderella Man averages just 7.8 yards per attempt and completes 70.3% of his passes in the opening frame (versus 9.6 yards per attempt on 69.4% overall). On the season, Purdy completed his first pass in 13 of his total 18 games played (72.2%).

Patrick Mahomes is KC’s top option on the first play of the game, but he still dips his toes in a similar manner to Purdy. Mahomes is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt on a 75.2% completion rate in the first 15 minutes (compared to 67.2% overall). In his 19 games overall, the Chiefs QB has completed his first pass in 16 of those outings (84.2%)

We have two offensive geniuses scripting these opening drives, and two capable quarterbacks who connect on their first attempt at a combined 78% rate. We’ll take the “Yes” on this prop at plus-money.

Pick: Both teams to complete their first pass — Yes (+100 at DraftKings)

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