Travis Kelce Super Bowl 57 Picks: Mahomes Finds His Man

There are a ton of big-name skill position players in this year’s Big Game. But none are bigger than Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. 

The charismatic superstar is obviously going to draw a lot of attention in Super Bowl player prop market. Unfortunately, the fact that Kelce is such a public darling means a lot of the value in his Super Bowl player props can dry up. 

But that just means we have to dig a little deeper into his Super Bowl odds. Do we put our faith in arguably the GOAT tight end in the biggest game of the season? Find out the best Travis Kelce Super Bowl picks below.

Travis Kelce Super Bowl 57 prop pick and same-game parlay

• Alternate receptions 8+ (+130)
• 8+ receptions + anytime touchdown + Mahomes Over 38.5 pass attempts (+500)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Travis Kelce Super Bowl 57 best bet

Finding the best bet for a player as popular as Travis Kelce can be tricky. The guy is going to be so heavily wagered in the two weeks leading up to Super Bowl LVII that it can be hard to find a market you’re happy with.

For instance: Kelce’s receptions Over/Under hit the board at 6.5. That’s a great number for Over bettors. But now that number is juiced to -145 or higher at some sportsbooks. He also has the shortest odds to be an anytime touchdown scorer, with those odds ranging from even money to -130. And when you look at the numbers and situation, it makes sense.

Kelce is an absolute machine and a future Hall of Famer. With Tyreek Hill departed from the Kansas City Chiefs, Kelce became Patrick Mahomes' clear top target. All Kelce did was go off for 1,338 yards and haul in a career-high 110 receptions, 12 for touchdowns. He’s added another 21 catches, 176 yards, and three scores in two playoff games.

Now, instead of paying the juiced number on Kelce’s reception total, I’m looking at the alternative market for some added value. You can get him to record eight or more catches at +130. Eight is a big number, but I think Kelce has a great chance to get there.

Kelce has shown out in big matchups. He went 108 yards and eight receptions in an early-season meeting against the Buffalo Bills. In fact, he had eight or more catches in four of his first eight games of the season. Then he settled down. But boy, has he sure picked it up in the playoffs.

Kelce caught a ridiculous 14 balls against the Jacksonville Jaguars, then hauled in seven catches against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game. And this isn’t some playoff anomaly. Kelce has eight or more receptions in six of his last eight playoff games.

Then there's the matchup. The Philadelphia Eagles have a great pass defense, a lot of which is predicated on a ferocious front seven that led the NFL in sacks. Since they create a lot of pressure, opposing QBs need to dump the ball off to their safety valves. In a lot of cases that’s the tight end. And definitely in Kansas City’s case.

The Chiefs’ wide receiver room is really banged up heading into the Super Bowl, so don’t be surprised if Andy Reid tries to use Kelce in some different ways to alleviate some of that pressure and get the ball out of Mahomes’ hands quickly.

Honestly, I don’t think the Eagles will mind. They will be happy to let Kelce do his thing underneath as long as they don’t get hit for big gainers. The Eagles ranked 14^th in yards allowed to tight ends but saw them targeted the 11^th-most this season.

Kelce is far and away the top target for the Chiefs and will be heavily involved in their game plan no matter the score of the game. I’m betting on another big game from Kelce when it matters most.

Prop: Kelce alt receptions 8+ (+130 at bet365)

Travis Kelce Super Bowl 57 SGP

Kelce 8+ receptions

Kelce anytime touchdown

Mahomes Over 38.5 pass attempts

+500 at bet365

I’m expecting Mahomes to feed Kelce the ball as much as possible in this game, so the 8+ receptions are a good jumping-off point for this same-game parlay. And with Kelce being the favorite to score an anytime touchdown in the Super Bowl, adding that to this SGP is a no-brainer.

Kelce has found the end zone 15 times this season, including three times already in his first two playoff games. He has also scored in five consecutive playoff games for the Chiefs overall.

Kelce is such a threat to score because he can get in the end zone multiple ways. If he gets in the open field, he’s great at making guys miss and can be a load to bring down. And in the red zone, he's great at finding soft spots in the defense and posting up.

And finally, it only makes sense to add a leg that includes the guy feeding Kelce the ball.

The Chiefs had the eighth-highest pass play percentage this season and Mahomes averaged nearly 38 pass attempts per game, but eclipsed that number nine times. That includes the Week 6 matchup against Buffalo and the AFC Championship game against Cincy. He’s also gone Over that number in five of his last six playoff games.

This game should be close, which means I expect Mahomes to air it out. 

Same-game parlay: +500 at bet365

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