The Philadelphia Eagles’ path to Super Bowl glory is a journey fueled by the crazy legs of Saquon Barkley.
The dynamic running back will see his share of touches, early and often. Philadelphia wants to impose its run-heavy ways on the Kansas City Chiefs from the opening whistle, poking the soft spot of that defense while also controlling pace and possession.
How quick a start can Saquon have in Super Bowl LIX? That’s where I look when betting Saquon Barkley odds for Eagles vs. Chiefs on Sunday, February 9.
Saquon Barkley player prop picks
- Best bet
Saquon Barkley Under 27.5 first-quarter rushing yards
(-115 at Caesars) - SGP pick
Barkley Under 113.5 rushing yards
Barkley Over 13.5 receiving yards
Barkley anytime touchdown
(+440 at Caesars)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Saquon Barkley prop pick
My best bet
Saquon Barkley Under 27.5 first-quarter rushing yards (-115 at Caesars)
My analysis
Saquon Barkley’s rushing totals have been out of control in the postseason. His prop total closed at 103.5 yards Over/Under in the Wild Card, 113.5 O/U in the Divisional Round, and a whopping 122.5 yards O/U in the NFC Championship Game.
His current rushing yard bar for Super Bowl LIX is 113.5 yards, with a derivative total of 27.5 yards O/U in the first quarter.
Barkley has taken big chunks out of those full-game totals in opening frames. He rushed for 41 yards in the first 15 minutes versus Green Bay, amassed 71 1Q rush yards against the L.A. Rams, and — of course — opened the NFC title game with a 60-yard dinger and finished with 64 total yards on the ground in the first quarter.
Over three playoff games, Barkley is averaging 55.7 first-quarter rushing yards — a metric blown out of proportion by two runs of 60-plus in those initial frames. And even in the matchup with Green Bay, the Packers pooched the opening kickoff and went three-and-out on their next drive to hand Philly extra touches.
In the regular season, the first quarter was Barkley’s quietest. He registered 71 total carries — much fewer than the other three frames — and averaged 24.6 yards in those first 15 minutes of action, picking up 19.65% of his total run yardage.
While Barkley will get carries to kick off SBLIX, that 1Q total seems inflated due to his postseason pop-offs to start games. Without those two monster runs and extra Eagles’ possessions, Barkley’s 1Q production would be more on par with his regular season rate.
Also working against another colossal first quarter from No. 26 is the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs’ run defense is nothing to write home about, especially after allowing bigger gains on the ground in the two playoff games. However, while KC ranks middle of the road for overall EPA allowed per handoff and opponent success rate per run, it sits No. 7 and No. 4 in those advanced metrics in the first quarter.
Kansas City’s offense will also temper Barkley’s early output. Patrick Mahomes & Co. run a very plodding pace and can chew up the first-quarter clock. The Chiefs will have a well-scripted opening drive and with the way this offense can convert third downs (third-best conversion rate) and extend drives, Philadelphia may not see the football much in the first quarter.
Barkley’s full-game projections vary, with most models coming in below his rushing total of 113.5 yards, and some forecasts as low as 89 yards. There are, however, a couple predicting 120-plus. My number comes out to 103 yards from Philly's star RB.
Even factoring Barkley’s average 1Q output against his current full-game rushing total for SBLIX, you get a projection just north of 22 yards in the first quarter. When plugging in my projection, that 1Q tally drops to around 20.5 yards.
The puffed-up rushing yards market for the Philadelphia Eagles’ top weapon is giving seven yards of headroom for the Under on Barkley’s rushing yards in the opening quarter of Super Bowl LIX.
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Saquon Barkley same-game parlay
Barkley Under 113.5 rushing yards
Barkley Over 13.5 receiving yards
Barkley anytime touchdown
Barkley can still have a big day and finish Under his rushing total, with my projections coming out to 103 yards.
The Eagles have to get the ball in the hands of their best player and Saquon is a great checkdown option when the Chiefs bring the heat.
A Big Game touchdown only seems fitting after the season Saquon has had.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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