Those looking for an inside edge when betting on the Super Bowl might want to follow the early line moves. Sharp professional players are most often the first ones to bet the Big Game odds the second they hit the board, and they’ve been right more often than they’ve been wrong in recent years.
Over the last 17 Super Bowls, the early money has been on the right side on 12 occasions (with one game seeing no line movement).
Super Bowl line movement history
| Super Bowl | Teams | Opening Spread | Early Move | Closing Spread | Early Money ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | Chiefs vs. Eagles | Chiefs -1.5 | Chiefs -2 | TBD | TBD |
| 58 |
Chiefs vs. 49ers
|
49ers -2.5 | 49ers -1 | 49ers -2 |
(Chiefs) Win
|
| 57 |
Chiefs vs. Eagles
|
Eagles -1.5 | Eagles -2 | Eagles -1 |
(Eagles) Loss
|
| 56 |
Bengals vs. Rams
|
Rams -3.5 | Rams -4.5 | Rams -4.5 |
(Rams) Loss
|
| 55 |
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
|
Chiefs -3.5 | Chiefs -3 | Chiefs -3 |
(Bucs) Win
|
| 54 | Chiefs vs. 49ers | Pick'em | Chiefs -1 | Chiefs -1.5 | (Chiefs) Win |
| 53 | Patriots vs. Rams | Patriots -1.5 | Patriots -2 | Patriots -2.5 | (Patriots) Win |
| 52 | Patriots vs. Eagles | Patriots -5.5 | Patriots -3.5 | Patriots -4.5 | (Eagles) Win |
| 51 | Patriots vs. Falcons | Patriots -3 | Patriots -3 (-120) | Patriots -3 | (Patriots) Win |
| 50 | Broncos vs. Panthers | Panthers -3.5 | Panthers -4.5 | Panthers -4.5 | (Panthers) Loss |
| 49 | Patriots vs. Seahawks | Patriots -1 | No move | Patriots -1 | Draw |
| 48 | Broncos vs. Seahawks | Pick'em | Seahawks -1 | Seahawks -1.5 | (Seahawks) Win |
| 47 | 49ers vs. Ravens | 49ers -4 | 49ers -3.5 | 49ers -4.5 | (Ravens) Win |
| 46 | Patriots vs. Giants | Patriots -3.5 | Patriots -3 | Patriots -3 | (Giants) Win |
| 45 | Packers vs. Steelers | Packers -2 | Packers -3 | Packers -3 | (Packers) Win |
| 44 | Colts vs. Saints | Colts -3.5 | Colts -6 | Colts -4.5 | (Colts) Loss |
| 43 | Steelers vs. Cardinals | Steelers -6.5 | Steelers -5.5 | Steelers -6.5 | (Cardinals) Win |
| 42 | Patriots vs. Giants | Patriots -13 | Patriots -11.5 | Patriots -11.5 | (Giants) Win |
Super Bowl 59 opening odds
Super Bowl 59 odds hit the betting board on Sunday night with the Kansas City Chiefs installed as 1.5-point favorites. That line quickly moved to -2, with sharp money immediately backing the two-time defending Super Bowl champions.
According to BetMGM on Monday morning, 72% of the spread handle was on the Chiefs, while DraftKings reported that 63% of the money came in on Kansas City at -1.5. That said, there has been buyback on the Philadelphia Eagles at +2, moving the line back to the initial number of +1.5 as of Wednesday.
It isn't surprising to see sharps back KC at this number given how profitable the Chiefs have been for pro bettors during the Patrick Mahomes era. The Chiefs are an incredible 29-9-1 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal with Mahomes as their starter. Mahomes is also 14-6 ATS in the playoffs in his career.
Sharps have been on the right side of the early line movement in 12 of the last 17 years, but that hasn't been the case in two of the last three seasons. When the Chiefs and Eagles tangled at the Super Bowl two years ago, the early line movement came in on the Eagles at -1.5, and Philly ended up losing 38-35.
Check out our Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl predictions before making your own wager on the game.
Chiefs vs Eagles: Odds to win the Super Bowl throughout this season
The chart below shows the odds that the Chiefs and Eagles will win this Super Bowl since last February.
Super Bowl trends
• An NFC East team has won the Super Bowl 13 times, the most of any division.
• Ten wild-card teams have gone on to win the Super Bowl.
• Until the Chiefs last year, the Patriots were the only franchise to win back-to-back Super Bowl titles since 2000.
