Tennessee Titans Odds, Predictions, and Betting Preview 2022: Scoring May Be Scarce

After winning 23 games the past two seasons — and suffering two early postseason exits — oddsmakers are drawing a line in the sand when it comes to the Tennessee Titans in 2022. And that line is a 9.5 win total.

On one side of the line, we have the best running back in the game and a solid stop unit anchored to a rising star on the defensive line. On the other, an aging quarterback without a No. 1 receiver playing against a schedule that is stouter than you think.

It’s time to face the music with our Tennessee Titans 2022 betting preview.

Tennessee Titans futures odds

Best futures bet: Under 9.5 (-140)

Has the Titans’ window to glory slammed shut in 2022? Depending on which book you bet at, Tennessee is headed for either nine or 11 wins, according to the look-ahead lines. That’s a significant difference, considering 11 would likely punch a ticket to the postseason, and nine would leave Tennessee behind the Colts in the AFC South (Indianapolis’ win total is 10).

The Titans are a worse team than they were last year when they stunned everyone en route to a 12-5 record and the AFC's top seed. They continued to win close games, going 6-2 straight up (4-4 ATS) in contests decided by eight points or less, but face an improved division and ranked out No. 5 in my QB strength of schedule — vs. 24th in standard SOS.

So much of the Titans’ success is tethered to Derrick Henry and his health. He takes pressure off the passing game, keeps defenses honest, is a first-down factory, and allows Tennessee to set the tempo and dominate time of possession, making the defense look even better as a result. 

But if missing nine games due to a broken foot in 2021 is a precursor to more injury issues, the Titans will be hard pressed to pass this 9.5-win total. And even with Henry healthy, double-digit wins might be a stretch.

Tennessee Titans betting overview

What will win bets: Defense

The Titans almost did a 180 on defense in 2021, going from 28th in EPA per play allowed in 2020 to No. 10 last year. Much of that improvement is due to DL Jeffery Simmons’ emergence as the most disruptive force in the AFC. The defensive line was able to collect 43 sacks and post a pressure rate of 24% while blitzing fewer than all but five other teams.

Tennessee is now in Year 2 fully under defensive coordinator Shane Bowen and is hoping the see improved play from the linebackers and secondary after 2021 ravaged the stop unit with injuries. The Titans did get burned by the big play, however, allowing 60 passes of 20 yards or more. The 2022 sked is ripe with rifle-armed QBs, so this pass rush needs to keep the pressure coming.

What will lose bets: Tanking Tannehill

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill may want to ban the playing of the Queen+David Bowie banger “Under Pressure” from the locker room, because 2022 is coming at the veteran from all angles. 

Tannehill’s contract opens the door for the team to trade or cut him in 2023 without taking a cap hit, making 2022 a make-or-break year for the 34-year-old. On top of that, Tennessee drafted his potential replacement in second-round selection Malik Willis, who Tannehill refuses to mentor. Willis is an exciting prospect who will pique the interest of fans if the starter struggles.

And speaking of struggles, Tannehill regressed in 2021. Sure, his receiving corps was the walking dead, and losing Henry midway through the year allowed defenses to focus on the pass, but it was also Year 1 without former OC Arthur Smith, who really brought out the best in Tannehill.

Now, the receiving corps is even worse with A.J. Brown traded, and Tannehill’s problems throwing under pressure could be compounded by a series of rival defenses who love to kill QBs (Bills, Raiders, Commanders, Chiefs, Broncos, Packers, Bengals, Cowboys).

Tennessee Titans game-by-game odds

There may not be a more divisive team than the Titans when it comes to the look-ahead lines. Early spreads from the spring have Tennessee a favorite in seven games with four other contests pegged as pick’ems (projected nine wins). Other shops are putting more faith in the Titans, making them favorites in 11 outings.

Due to life in the AFC South and drawing the NFC East in non-conference play, Tennessee has a standard strength of schedule ranked out just 24th in 2022 (based on last season’s results). However, my 2022 QB SOS pits this squad against the fifth-toughest slate of rival passers, headlined by names like Josh Allen, Derek Carr, Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert.

Tennessee Titans pro betting insights

Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)

The only reason I didn’t make a huge play on the Titans' Under is the fact that Vrabel has gotten the most out of subpar talent in the past with this team. Eventually, I think the Titans' lack of talent has to catch up with them. This is a bottom tier pass catching group and bottom third of the league offensive line led by an average quarterback.

Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!

Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)

Tennessee Titans early season forecast

Wild jumps in spreads headline the opening three weeks of action for Tennessee, and it’s tough to find a bigger gap on the board than the -6.5 spread vs. the Giants in Week 1 to the +7.5 the Titans get from the Bills in Week 2.

As mentioned, Tennessee is a hefty favorite in the home opener against New York. Under Mike Vrabel, this team has taken care of business in non-conference games, going 13-4 straight up, 10-7 against the spread, and 11-6 Over/Under vs. NFC foes since 2018. They did, however, lose SU and ATS to Arizona at home in Week 1 last year.

The Titans find out where they stand in the AFC pecking order with a trip to Orchard Park for Monday Night Football in Week 2. They beat Buffalo 34-31 at home as 6-point underdogs last season and are now catching +7.5 on the road in 2022. Tennessee cares not for oddsmakers’ opinions and is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when catching six or more points since 2018.

The team is on a short week when it welcomes the Raiders to the Music City for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff in Week 3, with books between Titans -1 and -2.5. Tennessee is just 9-12-1 ATS as a home favorite under coach Vrabel, including 2-5-1 ATS as a short chalk of a field goal or less.

Tennessee Titans spot bet

Week 5: @ Washington (-1, 46.5)

This trip to the nation’s capital will be the Titans’ third road game in four weeks and has them pegged between PK and -1 for Week 5. Tennessee starts this strenuous stretch at Buffalo for MNF in Week 2, leaving less time to return home and prep for visiting Las Vegas in Week 3. 

From there, the Titans travel to Indianapolis for a huge AFC South showdown that could go a long way toward deciding the division, setting up a letdown trap and sticky schedule spot for the second of back-to-back roadies in Washington. A bye also awaits Tennessee in Week 6.

Tennessee Titans totals tip

Tennessee started last season 5-3 Over/Under with the offense pumping out 13.9 yards per point until Henry went down on Halloween. After that injury, the tables turned on the totals with the Titans finishing the regular season 3-6 O/U as the offense struggled with missing pieces and the defense held six of those foes to 21 points or less.

That stop unit will be at least as good as last year, growing under DC Bowen and getting some key players back from injuries. As for the offense, Tannehill doesn’t have much to throw to and Henry helps the Titans play keep away from some very good passing attacks on the 2022 slate — and softens the pass pressure on Tannehill against a number of aggressive pass rushes.

Tennessee’s 2022 look-ahead totals feature just six games with numbers of 48 points or more compared to 2021, which finished with seven closing totals of 48-plus — all coming in the first nine games. Even when the markets adjusted to Henry’s absence, the Titans still stayed below the total most weeks.

Under Vrabel, the Titans are an incredible 18-8-1 O/U when facing totals of 48 points or more, but Tennessee looks and feels like more of an Under team in 2022.

Star power: Derrick Henry props

Best prop: Under 13.5 touchdowns (-115)

Henry finished with 10 touchdowns in eight games last season but nine of those scores came over three games and six of the TDs were against Jacksonville and Seattle. With the former Heisman winner as dominant as he is in short yardage, teams stack the line in red zone sets and beg the Titans to throw the ball.

Henry takes on some sound run stop units in the opening third of the schedule, facing five foes ranked Top 12 in EPA allowed per rush in 2021 in the opening six games. Things do get significantly easier in the home stretch with plenty of bad run defenses lined up, but can Henry stay healthy enough to get there?

Tennessee Titans trend to know

Thirteen of Tennessee’s 23 total wins the past two seasons have come in games decided by eight points or less, boasting a 13-4 SU mark but just a 7-10 ATS count in those crunches. 

The Titans ranked No. 4 and No. 6 in TeamRankings’ “Luck Rating” the past two seasons, and it is safe to say a regression is coming down the track, as Tennessee has overachieved almost as much as Pete Davidson’s romantic life.

Oddsmakers are predicting some nail-biters for the Titans in 2022, with DraftKings’ look-ahead lines featuring four Tennessee games at a pick’em — tied with Denver for the most toss-up games this season.

Titans' PK games (DraftKings)

• Week 5 @ Washington 
• Week 7 vs. Indianapolis
• Week 10 vs. Denver
• Week 12 vs. Cincinatti

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