Week 11 wraps up in The Lone Star State with the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Houston Texans at AT&T Stadium in a Monday Night Football showdown.
Houston wide receiver Nico Collins and Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson headline our Texans vs. Cowboys predictions and anytime touchdown NFL picks for tonight’s tilt.
Texans anytime touchdown pick
Nico Collins anytime touchdown
+120 at FanDuel
The Dallas Cowboys have allowed 28+ points in all four home games this season for an average of 38.25 against per, so it's a great spot for the solid but unspectacular Houston Texans offense to produce.
Of course, the Texans will also have go-to wide receiver Nico Collins back in the mix after he missed the past five weeks with a hamstring injury. Collins has scored 11 touchdowns across 20 games the past two years, and Dallas has surrendered nine scores to opposing wideouts through nine games this season.
This Cowboys defense has also had big problems against the pass with the third-lowest PFF coverage grade and fourth-lowest tackling grade. Additionally, Dallas has been particularly vulnerable to explosive plays with the eighth-highest EPA per dropback allowed despite respectable ranking 10th in dropback success rate.
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Cowboys anytime touchdown pick
Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown
+480 at FanDuel
This is a long enough price to take a flier on Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson finding the end zone for the first time of the year. Ferguson hauled in five receiving scores last season, and he’s garnered a consistent target share again in 2024, so the first TD catch is coming soon.
The Dallas tight end has run routes on 68% of his offensive snaps and has been targeted on a healthy 22.6% of them. There’s no questioning his role in the passing game, and while this isn’t a high-end statistical matchup, the Texans have allowed three touchdowns to opposing tight ends across the past five weeks.
Returning to the price point, Ferguson was as short as +210 to score an anytime touchdown as recently as Week 6 against the Lions, too. This is a fair number.
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