Texans vs Cowboys Predictions, Picks, and Best Bets for Monday Night Football

The Houston Texans make the short trip to Dallas to face a struggling Dallas Cowboys side, with their backup QB under center and a hobbling CeeDee Lamb. 

Despite the Cowboys' woes, tonight's Texans vs. Cowboys predictions expect the Cowboys to lean heavily on the run in order to keep this game close. 

Let's get right into our in-depth preview and hand out some NFL picks for November 18, 2024, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium.

Texans vs Cowboys MNF prediction

Who will win?

The Cowboys’ offense was built around passing the ball before it lost its quarterback, so a matchup with an excellent secondary isn’t exactly appetizing.

Houston should come out strong with much to play for, and against a defense that’s been the worst in football against the run it should have a field day — building a sizable lead early and burning plenty of clock throughout.

There’s certainly a chance Dallas could take note of Houston’s similar struggles against the run in recent success to find a way into this game, but it’s unlikely that it will be enough to win the game.

Prediction: I like the Texans in a game that will go down to the wire.

My best bet
Pick: Cowboys +7 (-104 at FanDuel)

My analysis
It’s quite the marvel that the Houston Texans are in first place in the AFC South. They’re in the bottom third of the in offensive DVOA as C.J. Stroud struggles to find the magic from his rookie year, but it’s been a strong showing from this defense that’s helped power them to a 6-4 record.

That could very well be the story of this game, with the Dallas Cowboys missing QB Dak Prescott and star offensive lineman Zack Martin’s status up in the air.

The Cowboys have averaged more than four yards per carry in the last two weeks, and this Texans rush defense has looked awfully suspect of late. The Indianapolis Colts went for 163 yards on just 26 carries against Houston in Week 8, and the New York Jets had a similarly strong showing in Week 9.

That could give the Cowboys an avenue into this game, and while the defensive numbers don’t look great, things have been much improved in recent weeks with Micah Parsons returning from injury.

I’m similarly bullish on this offense with Cooper Rush, given he’s been able to complete a high number of his passes and has protected the ball quite well. That’s important against a Texans team ranked second in interception rate, because you have a legitimate chance to move the chains if you can limit their ability to generate takeaways.

Dallas may sit last in rush play rate and has been quite dreadful on the ground, but it will have no choice but to run the ball on Houston. That should generate more life than we may expect given how this team has defended the ground game in recent weeks, and the Cowboys should be competitive at home.

Texans vs Cowboys MNF same-game parlay

Cowboys +7

Rico Dowdle 50+ rush yards

C.J. Stroud Under 241.5 pass yards

+366 at FanDuel

This game should be won and lost on the ground, with Dallas reluctant to throw behind Rush's arm and the Texans heavily inclined to run. As a result, we’ll take a couple of props that fit that script.

I’m very interested in Rico Dowdle and will pay just slightly more to get an alternate line on his rushing total. He’s gone for 50 or more yards in consecutive weeks, and in three of the last four, but most notably he took the ball 12 times last week despite playing 52% of the snaps.

Dallas has declined to run for most of the year, but we can see the tides turning without Prescott. Houston has been one of the worst in the league in terms of yards allowed per rush, and you’ve got to love the shifty Dowdle to do a lot with the ball as a result.

Then, we’ve got a Cowboys defense that’s allowed the lowest rate of passing plays in the league. There should be little reason for Houston to throw, particularly as the favorite, and I like Stroud to miss this number for a third time in four weeks.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Texans vs Cowboys odds

Texans vs Cowboys live odds

Texans vs Cowboys opening odds

• Spread: Houston -6 (-110) | Dallas +6 (-110)
• Moneyline: Houston -270 | Dallas +220
• Over/Under: Over 43.5 (-110) | Under 43.5 (-110)

Texans vs Cowboys spread and Over/Under analysis

• Houston immediately flew to 6.5, and then 7.5-point favorites before some late buy-back on the Cowboys moved the line to seven.
• A hefty 83% of the bets and 80% of the money is on the Texans to cover.
• The total dipped immediately to 42.5 points, and there was just one steep move down to 41.5. Otherwise, there’s been little action on the total.
• The Over has accounted for 59% of the tickets but only 55% of the handle.

Texans vs Cowboys betting trend to know

The Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in seven of their last nine games at home (+4.70 Units / 44% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Cowboys.

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