Texans vs Cowboys Predictions and Picks for MNF Week 11

The Cowboys used to be like clockwork on home soil. This year, they're 0-4 at AT&T Stadium and are 7-point underdogs on Monday Night Football against the visiting Texans. They might not finally break into the win column, but this will be close.

Kenny Ducey - Betting Analyst at Covers
Kenny Ducey • Betting Analyst
Nov 17, 2024 • 18:54 ET • 4 min read

NFL

Match starts: 22 hrs
DAL
36 %
HOU
64 %
EXPERT PICK - SPREAD
Dallas +7.0 (-104) Dallas +7.0 (-104)
Read Analysis
Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys NFL
Photo By - Imagn Images.

The Dallas Cowboys are still searching for their first home win of the season, and Monday night against the desperate Houston Texans would be an awfully good time for it.

Our Texans vs. Cowboys predictions still believe Dallas can keep it at least within a touchdown, even without Dak Prescott.

Let's get right into our in-depth preview and hand out some NFL picks for November 18, 2024 with kick-off scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium.

Texans vs Cowboys MNF prediction

My best bet
Cowboys +7 (-104 at FanDuel)

My analysis
It’s quite the marvel that the Houston Texans are in first place in the AFC South. They’re in the bottom third of the in offensive DVOA as C.J. Stroud struggles to find the magic from his rookie year, but it’s been a strong showing from this defense that’s helped them to a 6-4 record.

That could very well be the story of this game, with the Dallas Cowboys missing QB Dak Prescott and star offensive lineman Zack Martin’s status very much up in the air.

The Cowboys have averaged more than four yards per carry in the last two weeks, and this Texans rush defense has looked awfully suspect of late. The Indianapolis Colts went for 163 yards on just 26 carries against Houston in Week 8, and the New York Jets had a similarly strong showing in Week 9.

That could give the Cowboys an avenue into this game, and while the defensive numbers don’t look great, things have been much improved in recent weeks with Micah Parsons returning from injury.

I’m similarly bullish on this offense with Cooper Rush, given he’s been able to complete a high number of his passes and has protected the ball quite well. That’s important against a Texans team ranked second in interception rate, because you have a legitimate chance to move the chains if you can limit their ability to generate takeaways.

Dallas may sit last in rush play rate and has been quite dreadful on the ground, but it will have no choice but to run the ball on Houston. That should generate more life than we may expect given how this team has defended the ground game in recent weeks, and the Cowboys should be competitive at home.

Texans vs Cowboys MNF same-game parlay

Cowboys +7

Rico Dowdle 50+ rush yards

C.J. Stroud Under 241.5 pass yards

This game should be won and lost on the ground, with Dallas reluctant to throw behind Rush's arm and the Texans heavily inclined to run. As a result, we’ll take a couple of props that fit that script.

I’m very interested in Rico Dowdle and will pay just slightly more to get an alternate line on his rushing total. He’s gone for 50 or more yards in consecutive weeks, and in three of the last four, but most notably he took the ball 12 times last week despite playing 52% of the snaps.

Dallas has declined to run for most of the year, but we can see the tides turning without Prescott. Houston has been one of the worst in the league in terms of yards allowed per rush, and you’ve got to love the shifty Dowdle to do a lot with the ball as a result.

Then, we’ve got a Cowboys defense that’s allowed the lowest rate of passing plays in the league. There should be little reason for Houston to throw, particularly as the favorite, and I like Stroud to miss this number for a third time in four weeks.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Best Texans vs Cowboys bonus

Get $150 in bonus bets when you win with FanDuel!

New users can create an account at FanDuel and place your first bet of $5+ on the NFL, and get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins — PLUS a free three-month trial of NBA League Pass!

Sign up now at FanDuel Sportsbook, or learn more with our comprehensive FanDuel review.

Texans vs Cowboys odds

Texans vs Cowboys live odds

Texans vs Cowboys opening odds

  • Spread: Houston -6 (-110) | Dallas +6 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Houston -270 | Dallas +220
  • Over/Under: Over 43.5 (-110) | Under 43.5 (-110)

Texans vs Cowboys spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Houston immediately flew to 6.5, and then 7.5-point favorites before some late buy-back on the Cowboys moved the line to seven.
  • A hefty 83% of the bets and 80% of the money is on the Texans to cover.
  • The total dipped immediately to 42.5 points, and there was just one steep move down to 41.5. Otherwise, there’s been little action on the total.
  • The Over has accounted for 60% of the tickets but just 55% of the handle.

Texans vs Cowboys betting trend to know

The Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in seven of their last nine games at home (+4.70 Units / 44% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Cowboys.

Texans vs Cowboys game info

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Date: Monday, 11-18, 2024
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN or ABC

Texans vs Cowboys latest injuries

Texans vs Cowboys weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Pages related to this topic

Kenny Ducey - Covers
Betting Analyst

Kenny Ducey has worked in sports media for more than 10 years and began his journey as a credentialed reporter with Fordham University's WFUV Sports before moving on to Sports Illustrated. There, he wrote about baseball, basketball, and tennis - twice covering the NBA Finals.

He's been in the betting space for seven years, and has established himself as a top expert in MLB and tennis handicapping with brands like Tennis Channel, NBC Sports, and DraftKings. He's also been a frequent guest on betting shows such as MLB's Bettor's Eye and Tennis Bets Live.

Kenny has a knack for identifying underappreciated pitchers and tennis players as moneyline underdogs and credits his unique data analysis and hours of watching sports as the biggest reasons for success through the years. His best advice to bettors? Watch the games, trust your eye, and always question the public narrative.

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo