The Houston Texans hit the road on Sunday, October 20, to take on the Green Bay Packers in a bout between a pair of playoff hopefuls. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, with the game airing on CBS.
While Green Bay is a field-goal favorite, my Texans vs. Packers predictions and NFL picks expect Houston to give the Pack all they can handle in front of the Cheesehead faithful.
Make sure to also check out our Texans vs. Packers same-game parlay pick before placing your bets!
Texans vs Packers picks & predictions
Spread
The Green Bay Packers were shredded through the air in their two losses, and Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud faces statistical correction.
Houston checks out second in defensive DVOA and fourth in both pass-rush win rate and run-stop win rate. Defense travels, and the Packers will have their hands full with the Texans on Sunday afternoon.
Moneyline
Landing the field-goal buffer with the Houston +3 spread is gravy, and I also like the Texans to pull off the road upset at Lambeau Field. Green Bay hasn't been up to the challenge against playoff-caliber teams this season.
Over/Under
The Texans are 14-6 to the Under in regular-season games since the start of last season, and the Packers have allowed just 18.0 points per home game this year. As noted, I also like the Houston defense to hold the Green Bay offense in check.
My Texans vs Packers best bet
Texans +3 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Packers have faced two teams with a winning record through six weeks, and the Texans will be their third. Green Bay is 0-2 SU in those contests, while Houston is 2-1.
This is one of the marquee matchups of Week 7, so I’ll take the three points. Green Bay's defense won't be able to slow down Stroud & Co., as this is a stop unit that has already been shredded by both the Eagles and Vikings.
| Opponent | Dropback EPA | Dropback success rate | Yards per attempt | QB aDOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 0.362 (4th-highest) | 55.0% (7th-highest) | 8.2 | 8.8 |
| Vikings | 0.349 (5th-highest) | 66.7% (highest) | 9.8 | 10.1 |
Stroud faces statistical correction when it comes to his yards per attempt, aDOT, adjusted EPA per play, and success rate. He should also benefit from the lack of a Green Bay pass rush that rank 30th in pass-rush win rate and 22nd in pass-rush grade, per PFF.
On the flip side, I value Houston ranking second in defensive DVOA and fourth in both pass-rush win rate and run-stop win rate.
Texans vs Packers same-game parlay
Texans +3
Joe Mixon Over 18.5 receiving yards
Josh Jacobs 75+ rushing + receiving yards
Texans running back Joe Mixon is a proven and reliable pass-catcher out of the backfield and he’s cleared this receiving-yards benchmark in all three games this season — boasting eight receptions for 74 yards. The Packers have also surrendered the sixth-highest yards per target (7.27) to opposing running backs this season.
The Packers have been relying on running back Josh Jacobs through the air and on the ground, and he’s been up to the task with 75 or more yards from scrimmage in five of six games and an average of 94.2 per to start the season.
I also value that Jacobs has played 65% of the Green Bay offensive snaps while averaging 4.3 yards per rush, 7.2 yards per target, and 19.8 touches per game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texans vs Packers odds
Texans vs Packers live odds
Texans vs Packers opening odds
- Spread: Houston +2.5 | Green Bay -2.5
- Moneyline: Houston +110 | Green Bay -140
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Texans vs Packers betting trend to know
Houston is 7-4 ATS as an underdog dating back to last season. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Packers.
How to watch Texans vs Packers
| Location: | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-20, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Texans vs Packers latest injuries
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