Last weekend saw seven-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady come up short in his latest heroic postseason comeback attempt, as the Buccaneers clawed all the way back from a 27-3 deficit only to let it slip in the dying moments.
That loss to the Rams put an end to the Bucs' title defense, but could it have also brought an end to Brady's career? Despite the legendary quarterback putting together an MVP-worthy season at age 44, retirement talk has circled over the last week, including from Brady himself.
The NFL betting market is never too far behind, so Tom Brady retirement odds are on the board as the NFL's most successful player ponders his future.
Tom Brady retirement odds
| Will Tom Brady retire? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +145 |
| No | -190 |
As you can see, the expectation remains that Brady suits up in Week 1 of the 2022 season, with a return to the field priced at -190 compared to +145 for a world where the NFL kicks off without Brady for the first time since 1999. So, with a return for a 23rd season favored by the books, where is the talk of retirement coming from?
Conflicting reports
ESPN's Adam Schefter dropped a bombshell on Saturday afternoon, reporting that Brady had decided to retire from the NFL after 22 seasons:
Tom Brady is retiring from football after 22 extraordinary seasons, multiple sources tell @JeffDarlington and me.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 29, 2022
More coming on https://t.co/rDZaVFhcDQ. pic.twitter.com/6CHWmMlyXg
That was quickly refuted by several reporters nationally, locally to New England, and locally to Tampa Bay, claiming Brady had yet to come to a decision:
Report for @BallySports: Tom Brady contacted @Buccaneers GM Jason Licht and told him he has not yet made a final decision on retirement, disputing the ESPN report. Licht is respecting Brady's process and waiting for a definitive answer, whenever it comes, from the QB.
— Michael Silver (@MikeSilver) January 29, 2022
Finally, Brady's long-time agent Don Yee weighed in, issuing a statement to reporters saying Brady's plans will be announced by the quarterback himself:
Same text from Tom Brady’s agent, Don Yee, about reports of his retirement. Not a denial at all, not real clarity, but that should come soon: pic.twitter.com/E53BBi5Cxv
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) January 29, 2022
Still following? Now that the clarity — or lack thereof — around Brady's future has been addressed, let's get into why the GOAT is weighing retirement against a 23rd NFL season.
Why Tom Brady would retire
Retirement talk started, really, from Brady himself. On the "Let's Go" podcast with Jim Gray on Monday, Brady detailed the decision-making process ahead of him. "It's not always what I want," Brady said. "It's what we want as a family. And I'm gonna spend a lot of time with them and figure out in the future what's next.”
“The team doesn’t deserve anything less than my best," Brady explained. "And if I feel like I'm not committed to that, or I can't play at a championship level, then you gotta give someone else a chance to play, and, you know, we'll see. Playing football, I get so much joy from, I love it. But not playing football, there's a lot of joy in that for me also now, too, with my kids getting older and seeing them develop and grow. So all these things need to be considered, and they will be.”
There you had it, in Brady's own words, contemplating his future — and life off the field — publically for one of the first times. That smoke continued on Saturday, with Brady's inner circle are "convinced" he would retire, with an announcement to come in the next few days.
While the family aspect seems to be the biggest reason for Brady pondering retirement, there are on-field reasons for him to consider, too. The fantastic surroundings he had for himself in Tampa Bay have lessened considerably in recent weeks, making the 2022 season potentially less appealing.
Byron Leftwich, his offensive coordinator during both seasons with the Bucs, is in line to get the Jaguars' head coach job. Chris Godwin suffered a torn ACL that will surely delay his 2022 season, which may not take place in Tampa anyway as the receiver is a free agent coming off the franchise tag. And Brady's not alone in considering walking away, with Rob Gronkowski also admitting he wasn't sure about a return in 2022.
Why Tom Brady wouldn't retire
I mean, did you watch Brady play in 2021? Brady's play didn't skip a beat in his age-44 season, as he remained in MVP contention throughout the year and is likely to finish second in the voting. He threw for a career-high 5,316 yards on 67.5% completion, with his 43 touchdowns the second-highest single-season total of his career.
While Leftwich is moving on, head coach Bruce Arians has already committed to returning in 2022 which would, in theory, negate any fears around a new offense. Leftwich both played and coached under Arians, and the scheme Brady's run so successfully in Tampa Bay would no doubt continue to be a marriage of Arians' staples and Brady's strengths.
Ultimately, Brady seemingly has an insatiable appetite for winning, and he can still win with this Buccaneers team. Their defense finished in the Top 10 in DVOA despite an endless injury crisis and there's little doubt Arians and Brady can manufacture a high-level offense regardless of the weapons around him.
As you can see, there are plenty of reasons on both sides of the coin for Brady's future so ultimately, it's going to come down to what the future Hall of Famer wants for himself and his family this year and in the future. Those closest to him suspect that means the end of a career for the ages, while the NFL betting market is looking at a 23rd season.
One way or another, we'll find out Brady's future soon enough.
