Best NFL Touchdown Props for Week 13: Overlooked No More

Prop bet #1: Juwana TD

The New Orleans Saints are running out of healthy pass-catchers as Mike Thomas is on IR, Rashid Shaheed was DNP on Thursday, and Chris Olave is working his way back from a concussion he sustained in Week 12. Targets are available Sunday indoors vs. the Lions and I’m targeting Juwan Johnson for a TD at +360 (Caesars).

The TE was second on the team in targets last week with seven including one in the red zone. He trailed only Olave. He hauled in four passes for 45 yards vs. a very good Atlanta defense and should see an even bigger target share this weekend. 

Derek Carr hasn’t tossed a TD since November 5, but Johnson can be a threat in close even if Taysom Hill takes the snaps. With plenty heading over to A.T. Perry for a TD play, it’s a healthy Johnson that I think is returning the best value here on an offense missing a lot of talent. THE BLITZ has this as the third-most probable TE TD this week behind Pat Freiermuth (+290) and Travis Kelce (-105).

It’s a one-unit play that I’d play to +300. 

Juwan Johnson prop: Anytime TD (+360 at Caesars)

Prop bet #2: Above and Rachaad

Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Rachaad White is coming off his best rushing game and a season-high 89% snap share. This was on the back of an apparent knee injury that looks to be moot heading into a great matchup vs. the Panthers who allow the most rushing TDs per game in the league at 1.6 per match. 

White can be had as high as +120 to find the end zone on Sunday and I have this closer to -120 with a buy-point at +100/-105. 

White hit 100 yards on the ground last week on 15 carries and has hit the 15-carry mark in three of his last four games while totaling four TDs. His pass-cathing skills are legit and keep him from coming off the field. 

He also has 25 of 28 RB red-zone carries and seven of the eight RZ targets. THE BLITZ has him as the sixth-most probable player to score this week.

The Carolina Panthers have three defensive starters questionable as well as four offensive starters including two on the O-line. The Bucs are 5.5-point favorites and White could see 20 touches this Sunday vs. the 31st-ranked red-zone defense. 

Rachaad White prop: Anytime TD (+120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Brownlee hunter

Sometimes price is better than probability and that’s the case this week with New York Jets receiver Jason Brownlee who is paying a whopping +1,400 for a score Sunday at home vs. the Atlanta Falcons. 

Brownlee played all but one offensive snap last Friday and ran a route on every dropback. It turned into a 2/20/0 on two targets. Opportunity holds the most value and although I doubt he scores, just being on the field that much gives him a better than 6.7% chance that the odds are indicating. Hell, bet365 doesn’t even have any TD odds longer than +1,200.   

The Jets have a team total of 16.5 and have just three offensive TDs over their last five games, but this is a price play more than anything. Allen Lazard who was scratched last week is +450 to score for comparison. This is an erroneous price and his 100% route participation makes it even better. THE BLITZ has it as the best +EV TD of the weekend.

Breece Hall has been limited at practice this week and perhaps the Jets want to see what they have in the rookie wideout — hence the incredible opportunity. No 100% route receiver should be priced at +550 or higher and the +1,400 odds will be gone by Sunday. This should be priced between +500 and +650.

It’s a 0.25-unit bet for me to win 3.5. 

Jason Brownlee prop: anytime TD (+1,400 at Caesars)