Well, I jinxed myself last week and had my first 0-3 SU week of the season.
I’m still up +2.5 units and am backing the Carolina Panthers to score again this week because I love the pain. I’m also expecting an elite back to get back to 100 percent and find the end zone again while backing the Miami Dolphins offense for a big plus-money TD.
These are my favorite touchdown NFL picks for November 3.
Week 9 touchdown props
Nick Chubb anytime TD (+120 at Caesars)
Raheem Mostert anytime TD (+190 at FanDuel)
Jalen Coker anytime TD (+350 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 9 TD props
TD Prop bet #1: Nick Chubb anytime TD
Nick Chubb is entering his third game since his lengthy injury and his usage is increasing week by week. He went from 27 to 41 snaps and 11 carries to 16 in his first two games and now has an offense that can move the ball.
The Cleveland Browns RB scored a TD in Week 7 but was held out of the end zone last week despite three red-zone carries. It was also vs. the Ravens, who have one of the best rush defenses in football. Since Week 7, he has taken all six red-zone carries. Expect the same usage this weekend vs. the Los Angeles Chargers, where he is paying a decent +120 to score.
I don’t love taking TDs much shorter than this, but a 75-80% back with all the RZ work is a TD bet I’ll take to even money. It’s not an easy matchup vs. a good LAC defense, but this offense managed points last week and should be able to move the ball again on Sunday.
If he scores and gets 20 touches, this price could be -125 after Cleveland's Week 10 bye.
TD Prop bet #2: Raheem Mostert anytime TD
Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert had a pair of scores last week on nine carries with five of those totes coming in the red zone. His role is short yardage and all five of those RZ carries were from the 10-yard line and in. The offense is back to full strength but when the field gets short, it's Mostert time and the RZ back is +190 to score again this week vs. the Buffalo Bills.
Mostert was paying +135 last week to score, which is leaving me wondering why the price has moved north by 60 points. I understand the matchup is more difficult than Arizona, but this is a big price for an offense expected to score around 20 points on Sunday.
It’s a Miami offense back to full health and can move the ball. It’s also an offense that might get some PI in the endzone with how slippery Tyreek Hill can be.
With the red-zone role all to himself, I’d play this TD to +140 this week in this matchup.
TD Prop bet #3: Jalen Coker anytime TD
Let’s take a shot for the third TD and reluctantly back the Carolina Panthers offense again this week, but this time through the air with a receiver coming off a career-high in snaps and went 4/78/1 vs. an elite Denver defense.
Jalen Coker is the top dog in a bad Carolina passing game. He might not be trusted by everyone but when he's paying +350 for a TD, I’m in. His red-zone role was very big last week as he had six targets with three coming inside the 20.
There is some worry with Adam Thielen possibly coming back but if he is out (he's been sidelined since Week 4), and that’s likely as there is no reason to rush him back, this +350 price is going to drop. This is a team looking toward the future and Coker is in the plans as only him and David Moore were the only WRs to see 80% or more route share.
The Panthers ran 11 personnel at 53% last week and get an easy passing matchup vs. the New Orleans Saints this week who have given up over 100 points over their last three games including six passing TDs.
It’s a shit offense, but has one of the easiest matchups in Week 9. There is some worry about Thielen but that seems to be priced in. I can’t see the +350 odds getting any longer.
Not intended for use in MA.
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